Orchard meadows, a traditional agroforestry system in Switzerland combining the dual use fruit and fodder production, are declining, even though the farmland managed under agri-environmental schemes (AES) has been expanding. Despite increasing interest in agroforestry research for developing sustainable agriculture, it is poorly understood how subsidies contribute to the maintenance of trees on agricultural land and the promotion of farmland biodiversity. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to examine the effects of incentive-based AES on both farmers’ decisions regarding trees and biodiversity by developing an ecological–economic assessment model. To explore cost-effective AES, we explicitly consider the heterogeneity of farm types. We apply this integrated model to the farms in Schwarzbubenland, a small hilly region in Northern Switzerland. Results show that the adoption of AES and the compliance costs of participating in AES considerably vary among farm types, and the current AES do not provide farmers with sufficient payments to maintain any type of orchard meadows, despite the ecological benefits of orchard meadows. The integrating modeling developed in this study enables us to better understand the relationship between subsidies and biodiversity through farmers’ decisions on land use and facilitates the design of cost-effective payments for the maintenance of agroforestry.

Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run.

Concerns regarding the impact of climate change, food price volatility, and weather uncertainty have motivated users of simulation models to consider uncertainty in their simulations. One way to do this is to integrate uncertainty components in the model equations, thus turning the model into a problem of numerical integration. Most of these problems do not have analytical solutions, and researchers, therefore, apply numerical approximation methods. This article presents a novel approach to conducting an uncertainty analysis as an alternative to the computationally burdensome Monte Carlo-based (MC) methods. The developed method is based on the degree three Gaussian quadrature (GQ) formulae and is tested using three large-scale simulation models. While a standard single GQ method often produces low-quality approximations, the results of this study demonstrate that the proposed approach reduces the approximation errors by a factor of nine using only 3.4% of the computational effort required by the MC-based methods in the most computationally demanding model.

Agri-environmental schemes (AES) aimed at promoting farmland biodiversity are a key agricultural policy instrument in Switzerland. While the share of farmland managed under AES has expanded, traditional orchard meadows, regarded as agrobiodiversity hotspots, are declining. It is not clear yet what role AES play in maintaining orchard meadows, considering the effects of different farm management. Thus, the objective of this study was to examine the effects of AES on farmers’ decision-making regarding orchard meadows across a range of farm types. We developed an ecological-economic assessment model by integrating the results of the expert system SALCA-BD (Swiss Agricultural Life Cycle Assessment—Biodiversity) into the optimization-based bio-economic farm model (BEFM). We applied the model to five typical farm types (small dairy, large dairy, suckler, orchard, and small farms) identified in a rural region of northern Switzerland. Modeling results show that the adoption of AES considerably varies among farm types according to the compliance cost of participating in AES. Also, the current AES do not provide farmers with sufficient payments to maintain any type of orchard meadows. Instead, converting orchard meadows into arable land would generate higher incomes for farmers. This study recommends farm type specific payments to different farm types and a regulatory framework that incentivizes farmers to preserve the existing area of orchard meadows.