Empirical Bayes prediction, fundamental growth model, growth model, height, individual growth, mean-constant growth curve, non-linear regression, prediction, stature,

No abstract

Various literature report that little or no correlation exists between adult stature (AS) and the timing of the pubertal growth spurt in stature. No direct linear relationship between AS and age at peak height velocity (PHV) was evident in the Hiroshima Growth Study sample. However, the partial correlation between AS and age at PHV was negative when stature at PHV was controlled. That is, AS and age at PHV negatively correlate with each other so that the older the age at PHV, the lower the AS when stature at PHV is statistically controlled. This is clearly shown by the scatter diagrams of AS and age at PHV. There is a similar relationship between AS and age at takeoff (or age at minimum height velocity). The stature increment during adolescence negatively correlates with age at PHV, and the stature increment highly correlates with length of adolescence. © 1996 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

SUMMARYWe propose an asymptotic mathematical growth model for 386 Japanese longitudinal measurements of height from birth to adulthood. This model is compared with JPA2 proposed by Jolicoeur, Pontier and Abidi (1992). We discuss some relationships between various biological parameters (including mid-childhood growth spurt).There is no linear relationship between age at one biological phenomenon P 1 and height at another biological phenomenon P 2 . When we statistically control a contrapair of the biological parameters (i. e., height at P 1 and age at P 2 ), there exists a strong relationship between those biological parameters for Japanese boys and girls. For example, the correlation coef®cient between adult height and age at peak height velocity is almost zero for boys and girls. However, their partial correlation coef®cients are, respectively, 0:524 and 0:579 for boys and girls when height at peak height velocity is controlled. The younger the age at peak height velocity, the taller the adult height when height at peak height velocity is ®xed. This is shown by the scatter diagrams with 80% con®dence ellipsoids by height groups at peak height velocity. A similar relationship holds for adult height and menarcheal age. The mean±constant growth curves classi®ed by height group at MHV and by height group at the age of six are presented. The taller the height at the age of six, the taller are the height at each age and adult height on average.The relative amount of expected information being an extension to Fisher's instinct information relates to the in¯uence of each parameter in the growth model (Ledford and Cole, 1998). This information may be very useful as a guideline for collecting longitudinal records for non-linear phenomena.

Since 1950 approximately 1600 exposed and control subjects who were in utero at the time of the atomic bombings (ATB) in Hiroshima and Nagasaki have been studied by the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC). The sample was drawn from the population of in utero children ATB who were either exposed or nonexposed (entering Hiroshima and Nagasaki between October 1945 and October 1955). Matching of subjects was carried out so that all available children exposed under 2000 m were entered into the study. For each child exposed proximally an attempt was made to include a child exposed distally and one not-in-city ATBmatched by sex, month of birth and economic status. Children at all stages of gestation were included.In this report, a four-parameter Gompertz curve is used to characterize the standing height growth during adolescence of these children. Based on maximum likelihood estimates of the four parameters, statistical analyses are performed to test for differences between sexes, cities, trimesters ATB, and exposure groups. The main findings are: (i) within each city males significantly differ from females; (ii) males and females in Nagasaki significantly differ from those in Hiroshima, respectively; (iii) differences among trimester ATB groups are, almost without exception, nonsignificant; (iv) differences among exposure groups are greater for males than for females, but no consistent findings relate growth impairment to exposure group and/or trimester ATB.