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In this paper, we propose a novel semiotic prediction method for driving behavior based on double articulation structure. It has been reported that predicting driving behavior from its multivariate time series behavior data by using machine learning methods, e.g., hybrid dynamical system, hidden Markov model and Gaussian mixture model, is difficult because a driver's behavior is affected by various contextual information. To overcome this problem, we assume that contextual information has a double articulation structure and develop a novel semiotic prediction method by extending nonparametric Bayesian unsupervised morphological analyzer. Effectiveness of our prediction method was evaluated using synthetic data and real driving data. In these experiments, the proposed method achieved long-term prediction 2-6 times longer than some conventional methods.

To develop a new generation ADAS that avoids a dangerous condition in advance, we need to predict driving behaviors. Since a nonparametric Bayesian method with a twolevel structure successfully predicted the symbolized behaviors only, we applied a nonparametric Bayesian method with linear dynamical systems to predict the driving behavior. The method called the beta process autoregressive hidden Markov model (BP-AR-HMM) segments driving behaviors into states each of which corresponds to an AR model and it predicts future behaviors using the estimated future state sequence and the dynamical systems therein. Here, the segmentation as well as the parameters of the dynamical systems are determined using given training data in an unsupervised way. We carried out experiments with real driving data and found that the BP-AR-HMM predicted driving behaviors better than other methods.

An unsupervised learning method, called double articulation analyzer with temporal prediction (DAA-TP), is proposed on the basis of the original DAA model. The method will enable future advanced driving assistance systems to determine driving context and predict possible scenarios of driving behavior by segmenting and modeling incoming driving-behavior time series data. In previous studies, we applied the DAA model to driving-behavior data and argued that contextual changing points can be estimated as changing points of chunks. A sequence prediction method, which predicts the next hidden state sequence, was also proposed in a previous study. However, the original DAA model does not model the duration of chunks of driving behavior and is not able to do a temporal prediction of the scenarios. Our DAA-TP method explicitly models the duration of chunks of driving behavior on the assumption that driving-behavior data have a two-layered hierarchical structure, i.e., double articulation structure. For this purpose, the hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden semi-Markov model is used for explicitly modeling the duration of segments of driving-behavior data. A Poisson distribution is also used to model the duration distribution of driving-behavior segments. The duration distribution of chunks of driving-behavior data is also theoretically calculated using the reproductive property of the Poisson distribution. We also propose a calculation method for obtaining the probability distribution of the remaining duration of current driving words as a mixture of Poisson distribution with a theoretical approximation for unobserved driving words. This method can calculate the posterior probability distribution of the next termination time of chunks by explicitly modeling all probable chunking results for observed data. The DAA-TP was applied to a synthetic data set having a double articulation structure to evaluate its model consistency. To evaluate the effectiveness of DAA-TP, we applied it to a drivingbehavior data set recorded at actual factory circuits. The DAA-TP could predict the next termination time of chunks more accurately than the compared methods. We also report the qualitative results for understanding the potential capability of DAA-TP.