Abstract. It is necessary to evaluate aggregate damage probability to multiple buildings when performing probabilistic risk assessment for the
buildings. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate a method of tsunami
hazard and risk assessment for two buildings far away from each other, using copulas of tsunami hazards that consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of tsunami wave heights. First, we simulated the wave heights considering uncertainty by varying the slip amount and fault depths. The frequency distributions of the wave heights were evaluated via the response surface method. Based on the distributions and numerically simulated wave heights, we estimated the optimal copula via maximum likelihood estimation.
Subsequently, we evaluated the joint distributions of the wave heights and
the aggregate damage probabilities via the marginal distributions and the
estimated copulas. As a result, the aggregate damage probability of the
99th percentile value was approximately 1.0 % higher and the
maximum value was approximately 3.0 % higher while considering the wave
height correlation. We clearly showed the usefulness of copula modeling
considering the wave height correlation in evaluating the probabilistic risk of multiple buildings. We only demonstrated the risk evaluation method for two buildings, but the effect of the wave height correlation on the results is expected to increase if more points are targeted.
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