As our country has been opening itself more to foreign capital, foreign banks have brought their paradigm of efficient business methods in the banking system of the Republic of Serbia. This paper shows the seven-year analysis of the time series based on the ratio indicators of liquidity and profitability of the 10 largest banks doing business in the Republic of Serbia for the period between 2010 and 2017. In this research we used data from quarterly reports issued by the National Bank of Serbia and the selection criteria for banks was the amount of total net assets. As the percentage of participating banks' share is 77.1% of the total net assets of all banks operating in the Republic of Serbia, the values obtained approximate the performance of the entire banking system to a very good extent. The objective of this paper is to interpret these indicators in the aim of supporting the decision-making process concerning the credit-based and other finance-based relationships with clients so as to demonstrate whether monitoring of monetary authorities needs to be raised to a higher level, assuming that in the observed period the banking system of the Republic of Serbia was stable.

Т а м а р а В е с и ћ , Н е н а д Р а в и ћ , М а р и ј а Ђ е к и ћ

Just over a decade after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008, the world is once again facing a global crisis caused by the Covid-19 virus pandemic. The paper compares the effects of the crisis on the banking sector with special reference to the measures of the National Bank of Serbia that were implemented in order to preserve financial stability in the Republic of Serbia. It was concluded that the Serbian banking sector has consistently submitted to the moratorium introduced by the NBS, most likely as a consequence of high liquidity and capital adequacy in previous periods. On the other hand, due to the corona virus pandemic, many factories have stopped producing gold, the transport of goods is functioning slowly, which has led to a shortage of gold, so it is almost impossible to buy a gold ducat or gold bar in Europe. As a result, the jump in demand consequently affected the increase in the value of gold. Although bankers quickly adapted to work from home and electronic delivery of services to end users, what is a fact is that in the future we will certainly face new financial shocks, so one of the goals of the work is to create foundations and recommendations for further business research in risky situations.

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of the rate of selected parameters on the banking system performance, specifically to non-performing loans (NPLs) movements. The goal is to investigate which the most influential factors affecting the movement of NPLs in the WB countries are, given that research have pointed out the impact of macroeconomic factors on the formation of NPL rates in banking systems. The authors have added several parameters to their methodology, dividing the indicators into internal and external. On the topic of indicators that affect the performance of the banking system, but also predictions of future trends of NPLs, several hypotheses can be set, but this research will start from the hypothesis that the NPL trend can be predicted by creating predictive models which, as the basis, have a combination of macroeconomic and banking system performance indicators. In addition to scientific literature, publications of international development and those by financial institutions were used as well, and the authors also accessed the international database - CEIC data. The time aspect of the research will cover the period 2010-2019, and the prediction of NPL trends will be performed for the period 2020-2025. To determine the final model and the indicator that will most accurately describe the target variable, the Merton's model in the statistical tool R will be developed and prediction tests will be fey performed. The most important statistical methods: linear regression, R2, ADJ R2, correlation matrix. The results show that in 3 out of 5 observed indicators, the one that most influences the trend of problem loans is the unemployment rate. Based on the modelling, the outputs indicate small deviations between the NPL obtained by the model and the publicly announced NPL-trends are very well presented, and the forecast results indicate a sharpening of the NPL trend curve in the period up to 2025. The contribution of this paper is reflected in the time prediction of NPL trends which can be useful to state authorities for adequate measure implementation.

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