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BackgroundThe aim of this study was to develop a 48‐h mortality risk score, which included morphology data, for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm presenting to an emergency department, and to assess its predictive accuracy and clinical effectiveness in triaging patients to immediate aneurysm repair, transfer or palliative care.MethodsData from patients in the IMPROVE (Immediate Management of the Patient With Ruptured Aneurysm: Open Versus Endovascular Repair) randomized trial were used to develop the risk score. Variables considered included age, sex, haemodynamic markers and aortic morphology. Backwards selection was used to identify relevant predictors. Predictive performance was assessed using calibration plots and the C‐statistic. Validation of the newly developed and other previously published scores was conducted in four external populations. The net benefit of treating patients based on a risk threshold compared with treating none was quantified.ResultsData from 536 patients in the IMPROVE trial were included. The final variables retained were age, sex, haemoglobin level, serum creatinine level, systolic BP, aortic neck length and angle, and acute myocardial ischaemia. The discrimination of the score for 48‐h mortality in the IMPROVE data was reasonable (C‐statistic 0·710, 95 per cent c.i. 0·659 to 0·760), but varied in external populations (from 0·652 to 0·761). The new score outperformed other published risk scores in some, but not all, populations. An 8 (95 per cent c.i. 5 to 11) per cent improvement in the C‐statistic was estimated compared with using age alone.ConclusionThe assessed risk scores did not have sufficient accuracy to enable potentially life‐saving decisions to be made regarding intervention. Focus should therefore shift to offering repair to more patients and reducing non‐intervention rates, while respecting the wishes of the patient and family.

A modified 123I-antipyrine cutaneous washout technique for the selection of amputation levels is described. The modifications imply a reduction of time needed for the examination by simultaneous recordings on different levels, and a better patient acceptance by reducing inconvenience. Furthermore, both skin perfusion pressure (SPP) and skin blood flow (SBF) are determined from each clearance curve. In a prospective study among 26 diabetic patients presenting with ulcers or gangrene of the foot, both SPP and SBF were determined preoperatively on the selected level of surgery and on adjacent amputation sites. These 26 patients underwent 12 minor foot amputations and 17 major lower limb amputations. Two of these amputations failed to heal. SBF values appeared indicative for the degree of peripheral vascular disease, as low SBF values were found with low SPP values. SPP determinations revealed good predictive values: all surgical procedures healed when SPP greater than 20 mmHg, but 2 out of 3 failed when SPP less than 20 mmHg. If SPP values would have been decisive, the amputation would have been converted to a lower level in 6 out of 17 cases. This modified scintigraphic technique provides accurate objective information for amputation level selection.

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To improve the chances for the amputee to become ambulatory the most distal level of amputation should be selected in patients with end-stage peripheral vascular disease. Physical examination alone provides insufficient information when amputation levels are closely related to areas with signs and symptoms of ischemia. In the present series of 85 lower extremity amputations the predictive values of clinical parameters and skin perfusion pressure measurements are assessed. The role of clinical judgment is clarified: the most distal level of amputation is to be selected by physical examination, but further information is required to assess the healing potential at the selected level. The presence of palpable pulses immediately above the selected level correlates well with primary wound healing (p less than 0.001, negative predictive value 100%). The absence of palpable pulses and angiographic patency scores are of no clinical value in amputation level selection. Skin perfusion pressure measurements were of excellent predictive value (p less than 0.001, positive predictive value 89%, negative predictive value 99%). According to these data a strategy is proposed for routine determination of the lowest level of amputation, where primary wound healing can be expected.