Abstract. The primary rationale for the use of phylogenetically based statistical methods is that phylogenetic signal, the tendency for related species to resemble each other, is ubiquitous. Whether this assertion is true for a given trait in a given lineage is an empirical question, but general tools for detecting and quantifying phylogenetic signal are inadequately developed. We present new methods for continuous-valued characters that can be implemented with either phylogenetically independent contrasts or generalized least-squares models. First, a simple randomization procedure allows one to test the null hypothesis of no pattern of similarity among relatives. The test demonstrates correct Type I error rate at a nominal ␣ ϭ 0.05 and good power (0.8) for simulated datasets with 20 or more species. Second, we derive a descriptive statistic, K, which allows valid comparisons of the amount of phylogenetic signal across traits and trees. Third, we provide two biologically motivated branch-length transformations, one based on the OrnsteinUhlenbeck (OU) model of stabilizing selection, the other based on a new model in which character evolution can accelerate or decelerate (ACDC) in rate (e.g., as may occur during or after an adaptive radiation). Maximum likelihood estimation of the OU (d) and ACDC (g) parameters can serve as tests for phylogenetic signal because an estimate of d or g near zero implies that a phylogeny with little hierarchical structure (a star) offers a good fit to the data. Transformations that improve the fit of a tree to comparative data will increase power to detect phylogenetic signal and may also be preferable for further comparative analyses, such as of correlated character evolution. Application of the methods to data from the literature revealed that, for trees with 20 or more species, 92% of traits exhibited significant phylogenetic signal (randomization test), including behavioral and ecological ones that are thought to be relatively evolutionarily malleable (e.g., highly adaptive) and/or subject to relatively strong environmental (nongenetic) effects or high levels of measurement error. Irrespective of sample size, most traits (but not body size, on average) showed less signal than expected given the topology, branch lengths, and a Brownian motion model of evolution (i.e., K was less than one), which may be attributed to adaptation and/or measurement error in the broad sense (including errors in estimates of phenotypes, branch lengths, and topology). Analysis of variance of log K for all 121 traits (from 35 trees) indicated that behavioral traits exhibit lower signal than body size, morphological, life-history, or physiological traits. In addition, physiological traits (corrected for body size) showed less signal than did body size itself. For trees with 20 or more species, the estimated OU (25% of traits) and/or ACDC (40%) transformation parameter differed significantly from both zero and unity, indicating that a hierarchical tree with less (or occasionally more) structure than the ori...

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We discuss and clarify several aspects of applying Felsenstein's (1985, Am. Nat. 125: 1-15) procedures to test for correlated evolution of continuous traits. This is one of several available comparative methods that maps data for phenotypic traits onto an existing phylogenetic tree (derived from independent information). Application of Felsenstein's method does not require an entirely dichotomous topology. It also does not require an assumption of gradual, clocklike character evolution, as might be modeled by Brownian motion. Almost any available information can be used to estimate branch lengths (e.g., genetic distances, divergence times estimated from the fossil record or from molecular clocks, numbers of character changes from a cladistic analysis). However, the adequacy for statistical purposes of any proposed branch lengths must be verified empirically for each phylogeny and for each character. We suggest a simple way of doing this, based on graphical analysis of plots of standardized independent contrasts versus their standard deviations (i.e., the square roots of the sums of their branch lengths). In some cases, the branch lengths and/or the values of traits being studied will require transformation. An example involving the scaling of mammalian home range area is presented. Once adequately standardized, sets of independent contrasts can be analyzed using either linear or nonlinear (multiple) regression. In all cases, however, regressions (or correlations) must be computed through the origin. We also discuss ways of correcting for body size effects and how this relates to making graphical representations of relationships of standardized independent contrasts. We close with a consideration of the types of traits that can be analyzed with independent contrasts procedures and conclude that any (continuous) trait that is inherited from ancestors is appropriate for analysis, regardless of the mechanism of inheritance (e.g., genetic or cultural). [Allometry; body size; branch lengths; comparative method; evolutionary rates; functional morphology; home range; statistics.] SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY

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Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.