Background: While there are plenty of studies investigating the market penetration of new technologies, phaseout processes of a predominant technology are rarely analyzed. The present study explores the case of a declining technology, employing the example of coal-fired power plants in Germany. These plants were promoted by governmental decision-makers as well as by the industry for a long time, but meanwhile, the phase-out or at least a cutback of coal-fired power plants is--not only in Germany--considered to be a key strategy for the transformation towards a sustainable society. Methods:We investigate potential pathways of the future development of the coal-fired power plant sector in an extended multi-level perspective (MLP) framework that integrates economic, social, political, and technical aspects.Results: Taking into account the fact that coal is losing its support from several important stakeholders (e.g., governmental decision-makers, utilities) due to, e.g., changes in the prioritization of political goals, changes in the economic framework, in actor constellations, and in public attitudes, coal-fired power plants tend to be pushed into niches or to disappear completely. Conclusions: A reasonable management of the niche technology "coal-fired power plants" could include a protection of space for ensuring a smooth removal of the links between the regime and the technology with respect to, e.g., social and environmental aspects. The phase-out pathways for the coal-fired power plants elaborated on in this paper help to better inform policy-makers to design transformation processes not only for coal-fired power but also for other declining technologies.

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The paper derives an efficient allocation rule of adaptation aid from a donor to the recipient nations, which is different from the traditional development aid literature. The design of the allocation rule takes care of the optimum reaction of the nations on receipt of the aid. It suggests that the allocation rule must take care of (i) distributional weight of the recipients on the donor’s welfare, (ii) their vulnerability to climate change, (iii) their efficiency in using the aid and (iv) their mitigation response to the aid. It discusses the way these factors can be incorporated in an implementable rule by use of the available data. The score of a nation derived from the first three factors requires an upward/downward adjustment if the adaptation aid leads to an increase/decrease of the mitigation effort of the country. A nation receiving a higher score is rewarded with higher allocation of aid. The paper suggests as a rule of thumb that the aid in the form of technical assistance requires a downward adjustment and the aid in monetary form requires an upward adjustment in the score.

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