Aim Fossil pollen spectra from lake sediments in central and western Mongolia have been used to interpret past climatic variations, but hitherto no suitable modern pollen-climate calibration set has been available to infer past climate changes quantitatively. We established such a modern pollen dataset and used it to develop a transfer function model that we applied to a fossil pollen record in order to investigate: (1) whether there was a significant moisture response to the Younger Dryas event in north-western Mongolia; and (2) whether the early Holocene was characterized by dry or wet climatic conditions. Location Central and western Mongolia.Methods We analysed pollen data from surface sediments from 90 lakes. A transfer function for mean annual precipitation (P ann ) was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) and applied to a fossil pollen record from Lake Bayan Nuur (49.98°N, 93.95°E, 932 m a.s.l.). Statistical approaches were used to investigate the modern pollen-climate relationships and assess model performance and reconstruction output.Results Redundancy analysis shows that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Spatial autocorrelation and significance tests of environmental variables show that the WA-PLS model for P ann is the most valid function for our dataset, and possesses the lowest root mean squared error of prediction.Main conclusions Precipitation is the most important predictor of pollen and vegetation distributions in our study area. Our quantitative climate reconstruction indicates a dry Younger Dryas, a relatively dry early Holocene, a wet mid-Holocene and a dry late Holocene.

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Quantification of intra-specific morphological variability of aquatic biota along environmental gradients can produce biological proxies that can be applied to paleoenvironmental reconstructions. This morphology-derived proxy information can be especially valuable when dealing with low-diversity fossil assemblages, i.e. in situations when paleoenvironmental inference based on species composition of the assemblage is less effective. We analyzed valve size and outline shape of the widespread and highly environmentally tolerant ostracode species Limnocythere inopinata collected in 15 lakes and ponds of Western Mongolia. We quantified shape variability among and within these living populations in relation to water chemistry and physical habitat variables. Our results indicate that: (1) a population's mean valve outline is related to habitat type, (2) surface water temperature, the alkalinity to sulphate ratio, specific conductance and total phosphorus together explain a high portion of the variance in mean valve outline between populations, and (3) a quantitative model inferring the alkalinity to sulphate ratio from mean valve outline has an RA(2) of 0.88 and RMSEP of 0.17. These results corroborate the hypothesis that high morphological variability in this ostracode species is due to both ecophenotypic variance and high clonal diversity associated with a mixed reproductive strategy (a combination of sexual and parthenogenetically reproducing lineages), and underline the value of morphometric techniques in paleoecology