Objectives: Independent validation of risk scores after hip fracture is uncommon, particularly for evaluation of outcomes other than death. We aimed to assess the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality, physical function, length of stay, and postoperative complications. Design: Analysis of routinely collected prospective data partly collected by follow-up interviews. Setting and Participants: Consecutive hip fracture patients were identified from the Northumbria hip fracture database between 2014 and 2018. Patients were excluded if they were not surgically managed or if scores for predictive variables were missing. Methods: C statistics were calculated to test the discriminant ability of the NHFS, Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS), and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade for in-hospital, 30-day, and 120day mortality; functional independence at discharge, 30 days, and 120 days; length of stay; and postoperative complications. Results: We analyzed data from 3208 individuals, mean age 82.6 (standard deviation 8.6). 2192 (70.9%) were female. 194 (6.3%) died during the first 30 days, 1686 (54.5%) were discharged to their own home, 211 (6.8%) had no mobility at 120 days,141 (4.6%) experienced a postoperative complication. The median length of stay was 18 days (interquartile range 8-28). For mortality, C statistics for the NHFS ranged from 0.68 to 0.69, similar to ASA and AMTS. For postoperative mobility, the C statistics for the NHFS ranged from 0.74 to 0.83, similar to AMTS (0.61-0.82) and better than the ASA grade (0.68-0.71). Length of stay was significantly correlated with each score (P < .001 by Jonckheere-Terpstra test); NHFS and AMTS showed inverted Ushaped relationships with length of stay. For postoperative complications, C statistics for NHFS (0.54-0.59) were similar to ASA grade (0.53-0.61) and AMTS (0.50-0.58). Conclusions and Implications: The NHFS performed consistently well in predicting functional outcomes, moderately in predicting mortality, but less well in predicting length of stay and complications. There remains room for improvement by adding further predictors such as measures of physical performance in future analyses.

Objectives: Independent validation of risk scores after hip fracture is uncommon, particularly for evaluation of outcomes other than death. We aimed to assess the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality, physical function, length of stay and postoperative complications. Design: Analysis of routinely collected prospective data. Setting and Participants: Consecutive hip fracture patients were identified from the Northumbria hip fracture database between 2014-2018. Patients were excluded if they were not surgically managed or if scores for predictive variables were missing. Methods: C-statistics were calculated to test the discriminant ability of the NHFS, Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS), and ASA grade for in-hospital, 30- and 120-day mortality, functional independence at discharge, 30-days and 120-days, length of stay, and postoperative complications. Results We analysed data from 3208 individuals, mean age 82.6 (SD 8.6). 2192 (70.9%) were female. 194 (6.3%) died during the first 30-days, 1686 (54.5%) were discharged to their own home, 211 (6.8%) had no functional mobility at 120-days, 141 (4.6%) experienced a postoperative complication. The median length of stay was 18 days (IQR 8-28). For mortality, c-statistics for the NHFS ranged from 0.68-0.69, similar to ASA and AMTS. For functional independence, the c-statistics for the NHFS ranged from 0.74-0.83, similar to AMTS (0.61-0.82) and better than the ASA grade (0.68-0.71). Length of stay was significantly correlated with each score (p&lt;0.001 by Jonckheere-Terpstra test); NHFS and AMTS showed inverted U-shaped relationships with length of stay. The best predictor of postoperative complications was ASA grade (0.56-0.64), whilst NHFS (0.49-0.59) and AMTS (0.48-0.57) performed similarly poorly. Conclusions and Implications: The NHFS performed consistently well in predicting functional outcomes, moderately in predicting mortality, but less well in predicting length of stay and complications. There remains room for improvement by adding further predictors such as measures of physical performance in future analyses.

Purpose Pre-operative scores based on patient characteristics are commonly used to predict hip fracture outcomes. Mobility, an indicator of pre-operative function, has been neglected as a potential predictor. We assessed the ability of pre-fracture mobility to predict post-operative outcomes following hip fracture. Methods We analysed prospectively collected data from hip fracture surgery patients at a large-volume trauma unit. Mobility was classified into four groups. Post-operative outcomes studied were mortality and residence at 30 days, medical complications within 30- or 60-days post-operatively, and prolonged length of stay (LOS, ≥ 28 days). We performed multivariate regression analyses adjusting for age and sex to assess the discriminative ability of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), with and without mobility, for predicting outcomes using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results 1919 patients were included, mean age 82.6 (SD 8.2); 1357 (70.7%) were women. Multivariate analysis demonstrated patients with worse mobility had a 1.7–5.5-fold higher 30-day mortality (p ≤ 0.001), and 1.9–3.2-fold higher likelihood of prolonged LOS (p ≤ 0.001). Worse mobility was associated with a 2.3–3.8-fold higher likelihood of living in a care home at 30-days post-operatively (p < 0.001) and a 1.3–2.0-fold higher likelihood of complications within 30 days (p ≤ 0.001). Addition of mobility improved NHFS discrimination for discharge location, AUROC NHFS 0.755 [0.733–0.777] to NHFS + mobility 0.808 [0.789–0.828], and LOS, AUROC NHFS 0.584 [0.557–0.611] to NHFS + mobility 0.616 [0.590–0.643]. Conclusion Incorporating mobility assessment into risk scores may improve casemix adjustment, prognostication following hip fracture, and identify high-risk patient groups requiring enhanced post-operative care at admission.