The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged urbanization around 4,500 BP. However, further decline in monsoon precipitation led to conditions adverse to both inundation-and rain-based farming. Contrary to earlier assumptions that a large glacier-fed Himalayan river, identified by some with the mythical Sarasvati, watered the Harappan heartland on the interfluve between the Indus and Ganges basins, we show that only monsoonal-fed rivers were active there during the Holocene. As the monsoon weakened, monsoonal rivers gradually dried or became seasonal, affecting habitability along their courses. Hydroclimatic stress increased the vulnerability of agricultural production supporting Harappan urbanism, leading to settlement downsizing, diversification of crops, and a drastic increase in settlements in the moister monsoon regions of the upper Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.Indus Valley | floods | droughts | climate change | archaeology T he Harappan or Indus Civilization (1-8) developed at the arid outer edge of the monsoonal rain belt (9, Fig. 1) and largely depended on river water for agriculture (10). The Harappans settled the Indus plain over a territory larger than the contemporary extent of Egypt and Mesopotamia combined (Figs. 2 and 3). Between the Indus and Ganges watersheds, a now largely defunct smaller drainage system, the Ghaggar-Hakra, was also heavily populated during Harappan times (4, 5). Controlled by the Indian monsoon and the melting of Himalayan snow and glaciers (2,11,12), the highly variable hydrologic regime, with recurring droughts and floods, must have been a critical concern for Harappans, as it is today for almost a billion people living on the Indo-Gangetic Plain in Pakistan, northern India, and Bangladesh. In such challenging environmental conditions, both the development and the decline of the Harappan remain equally puzzling (13). We investigate how climate change affected this civilization by focusing on fluvial morphodynamics, which constitutes a critical gap in our current understanding of the Harappan in the way it affects habitability and human settlement patterns near rivers in...
