Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.

Evidence for climate-driven phenological changes is rapidly increasing at all trophic levels. Our current poor knowledge of the detailed control of bird migration from the level of genes and hormonal control to direct physiological and behavioral responses hampers our ability to understand and predict consequences of climatic change for migratory birds. In order to better understand migration phenology and adaptation in environmental changes, we here assess the scale at which weather affects timing of spring migration in passerine birds. We use three commonly used proxies of spring-time climatic conditions: (1) vegetation "greenness" (NDVI) in Europe, (2) local spring temperatures in northern Europe, and (3) the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) as predictors of the phenology of avian migration as well as the strength of their effect on different subsets of populations and the dependence of correlations on species-specific migratory strategy. We analyze phenological patterns of the entire spring migration period in 12 Palaearctic passerine species, drawing on long-term data collected at three locations along a longitudinal gradient situated close to their northern European breeding area. Local temperature was the best single predictor of phenology with the highest explanatory power achieved in combination with NAO. Furthermore, early individuals are more affected by climatic variation compared to individuals on later passage, indicating that climatic change affects subsets of migratory populations differentially. Species wintering closer to the breeding areas were affected more than were those travelling longer distances and this pattern was strongest for the earliest subsets of the population. Overall, our results suggest that at least early subsets of the population are affected by local conditions and early birds use local conditions to fine-tune the date of their spring arrival while individuals arriving later are driven by other factors than local conditions e.g. endogenous control. Understanding what cues migratory organisms use to arrive at an optimum time is important for increasing our knowledge of fundamental issues like decision making in organisms during migration and is crucial for future protection of migratory organisms.