The Janzen-Connell hypothesis is a leading explanation for plant-species diversity in tropical forests. It suggests that specialized natural enemies decrease offspring survival at high densities beneath parents, giving locally rarer species an advantage. This mechanism, in its original form, assumes that density dependence is overcompensating: mortality must be disproportionately high at the highest densities, with few offspring recruiting below their parents. We tested this assumption using parallel shadehouse and field density-series experiments on seedlings of a tropical tree, Pleradenophora longicuspis. We found strong, overcompensating mortality driven by fungal pathogens, causing 90% (shadehouse) or 100% (field) mortality within 4 weeks of germination, and generating a negative relationship between initial and final seedling densities. Fungicide treatment led to much lower, density-independent, mortality. Overcompensating mortality was extremely rapid, and could be missed without detailed monitoring. Such dynamics may prevent dead trees from being replaced by conspecifics, promoting coexistence as envisioned by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis.

Local‐scale microclimatic conditions in forest understoreys play a key role in shaping the composition, diversity and function of these ecosystems. Consequently, understanding what drives variation in forest microclimate is critical to forecasting ecosystem responses to global change, particularly in the tropics where many species already operate close to their thermal limits and rapid land‐use transformation is profoundly altering local environments. Yet our ability to characterize forest microclimate at ecologically meaningful scales remains limited, as understorey conditions cannot be directly measured from outside the canopy. To address this challenge, we established a network of microclimate sensors across a land‐use intensity gradient spanning from old‐growth forests to oil‐palm plantations in Borneo. We then combined these observations with high‐resolution airborne laser scanning data to characterize how topography and canopy structure shape variation in microclimate both locally and across the landscape. In the processes, we generated high‐resolution microclimate surfaces spanning over 350 km2, which we used to explore the potential impacts of habitat degradation on forest regeneration under both current and future climate scenarios. We found that topography and vegetation structure were strong predictors of local microclimate, with elevation and terrain curvature primarily constraining daily mean temperatures and vapour pressure deficit (VPD), whereas canopy height had a clear dampening effect on microclimate extremes. This buffering effect was particularly pronounced on wind‐exposed slopes but tended to saturate once canopy height exceeded 20 m—suggesting that despite intensive logging, secondary forests remain largely thermally buffered. Nonetheless, at a landscape‐scale microclimate was highly heterogeneous, with maximum daily temperatures ranging between 24.2 and 37.2°C and VPD spanning two orders of magnitude. Based on this, we estimate that by the end of the century forest regeneration could be hampered in degraded secondary forests that characterize much of Borneo's lowlands if temperatures continue to rise following projected trends.

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Most general circulation models predict that most tropical forests will experience lower and less frequent rainfall in future as a result of climate change, which may reduce the capacity of fungal pathogens to drive density-dependent tree mortality. This is potentially significant because fungal pathogens are thought to play a key role in promoting and structuring plant diversity in tropical forests through the Janzen–Connell mechanism. Therefore, we hypothesize that the drying of tropical forests will negatively impact species coexistence. To test one prediction of this hypothesis, we imposed experimental watering regimes on the seedlings of a tropical tree, Pleradenophora longicuspis, and measured mortality induced by fungal pathogens under shade house conditions. The frequency of watering had a strong impact on survival. Seedlings watered daily experienced significantly higher mortality than those watered every three or every six days, while increasing the volume of water applied also led to increased mortality, although this relationship was less pronounced. These results suggest that the capacity of fungal pathogens to drive density-dependent mortality may be reduced in drier climates and when rainfall is less frequent, with potential implications for the diversity enhancing Janzen–Connell mechanism.

Unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly used to monitor forests. Three-dimensional models of tropical rainforest canopies can be constructed from overlapping photos using Structure from Motion (SfM), but it is often impossible to map the ground elevation directly from such data because canopy gaps are rare in rainforests. Without knowledge of the terrain elevation, it is, thus, difficult to accurately measure the canopy height or forest properties, including the recovery stage and aboveground carbon density. Working in an Indonesian ecosystem restoration landscape, we assessed how well SfM derived the estimates of the canopy height and aboveground carbon density compared with those from an airborne laser scanning (also known as LiDAR) benchmark. SfM systematically underestimated the canopy height with a mean bias of approximately 5 m. The linear models suggested that the bias increased quadratically with the top-of-canopy height for short, even-aged, stands but linearly for tall, structurally complex canopies (>10 m). The predictions based on the simple linear model were closely correlated to the field-measured heights when the approach was applied to an independent survey in a different location ( R 2 = 67% and RMSE = 1.85 m), but a negative bias of 0.89 m remained, suggesting the need to refine the model parameters with additional training data. Models that included the metrics of canopy complexity were less biased but with a reduced R 2 . The inclusion of ground control points (GCPs) was found to be important in accurately registering SfM measurements in space, which is essential if the survey requirement is to produce small-scale restoration interventions or to track changes through time. However, at the scale of several hectares, the top-of-canopy height and above-ground carbon density estimates from SfM and LiDAR were very similar even without GCPs. The ability to produce accurate top-of-canopy height and carbon stock measurements from SfM is game changing for forest managers and restoration practitioners, providing the means to make rapid, low-cost surveys over hundreds of hectares without the need for LiDAR.