We construct and propose the "Bayesian Validation Metric" (BVM) as a general model validation and testing tool. We find the BVM to be capable of representing all of the standard validation metrics (square error, reliability, probability of agreement, frequentist, area, probability density comparison, statistical hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model testing) as special cases and find that it can be used to improve, generalize, or further quantify their uncertainties. Thus, the BVM allows us to assess the similarities and differences between existing validation metrics in a new light.The BVM has the capacity to allow users to invent and select models according to novel validation requirements. We formulate and test a few novel compound validation metrics that improve upon other validation metrics in the literature. Further, we construct the BVM Ratio for the purpose of quantifying model selection under user defined definitions of agreement in the presence or absence of uncertainty. This construction generalizes the Bayesian model testing framework.

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Identifying the mathematical relationships that best describe a dataset remains a very challenging problem in machine learning, and is known as Symbolic Regression (SR). In contrast to neural networks which are often treated as black boxes, SR attempts to gain insight into the underlying relationships between the independent variables and the target variable of a given dataset by assembling analytical functions. In this paper, we present GSR, a Generalized Symbolic Regression approach, by modifying the conventional SR optimization problem formulation, while keeping the main SR objective intact. In GSR, we infer mathematical relationships between the independent variables and some transformation of the target variable. We constrain our search space to a weighted sum of basis functions, and propose a genetic programming approach with a matrix-based encoding scheme. We show that our GSR method outperforms several state-of-the-art methods on the well-known SR benchmark problem sets. Finally, we highlight the strengths of GSR by introducing SymSet, a new SR benchmark set which is more challenging relative to the existing benchmarks.

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While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function for regression uncertainty estimation based on the Bayesian Validation Metric (BVM) framework while using ensemble learning. A series of experiments on indistribution data show that the proposed method is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. In addition, experiments on out-of-distribution data show that the proposed method is robust to statistical change and exhibits superior predictive capability.