Variational Inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces the stateof-the-art results for latent trajectory inference. A body of recent works focused on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its expansion, e.g., Forward Filtering Backward Simulation (FFBSi). These studies achieved a great success, however, remain a serious problem for particle degeneracy. In this paper, we propose Ensemble Kalman Objectives (EnKOs), the hybrid method of VI and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), to infer the State Space Models (SSMs). Unlike the SMC based methods, the our proposed method can identify the latent dynamics given fewer particles because of its rich particle diversity. We demonstrate that EnKOs outperform the SMC based methods in terms of predictive ability for three benchmark nonlinear dynamics systems tasks.

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The Kalman filter is the most powerful tool for estimation of the states of a linear Gaussian system. In addition, using this method, an expectation maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of the model. However, this algorithm cannot function in real time. Thus, we propose a new method that can be used to estimate the transition matrices and the states of the system in real time. The proposed method uses three ideas: estimation in an observation space, a time-invariant interval, and an online learning framework. Applied to damped oscillation model, we have obtained extraordinary performance to estimate the matrices. In addition, by introducing localization and spatial uniformity to the proposed method, we have demonstrated that noise can be reduced in high-dimensional spatio-temporal data. Moreover, the proposed method has potential for use in areas such as weather forecasting and vector field analysis.

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