We propose a geometrically, kinematically, and mechanically viable thin-skinned kinematic forward model for a cross section intersecting the Mont Terri rock laboratory in the frontal-most part of the Jura fold-and-thrust belt, Switzerland. In addition to the available tunnel, borehole, and surface data, initial boundary conditions are crucial constraints for the forward modelling scenarios, especially the inherited topography of the basement and any pre-compressional offset within the Mesozoic sediments. Our kinematic analysis suggests an early-stage formation of the Mont Terri anticline located above ENE-trending, Late Paleozoic extensional faults, followed by back-stepping of the deformation developing the Clos du Doubs and Caquerelle anticlines further south. In this model, the thrust sequence was dictated by the inherited basement faults, which acted as nuclei for the ramps, detached along the basal décollement within the Triassic evaporites. The mechanical viability of both the thrust angles and thrust sequence was demonstrated by applying the limit analysis theory. Despite numerous subsurface geological data, extrapolation of structures to depth remains largely under-constrained. We have tested an alternative model for the same cross section, involving an upper detachment at the top of the Staffelegg Formation that leads to duplication of the sub-Opalinus Clay formations, prior to detachment and thrusting on the Triassic evaporites. This model is geometrically and kinematically viable, but raises mechanical questions. A total displacement of 2.9 and 14.2 km are inferred for the classical and the alternative scenarios, respectively. In the latter, forward modelling implies that material was transported 10.8 km along the upper detachment. It is not yet clear where this shortening might have been accommodated. Despite the differences in structural style, both models show that pre-existing basement structures might have interfered in time and space. Both styles may have played a role, with lateral variation dictated by basement inherited structures.
Field observations and seismic interpretations testify that the front of the Jura fold-and-thrust belt is still submitted to compressive deformation, but whether the basement is deforming (thick-skin) or not (thin-skin) remains an open question. We propose a mechanical point of view using the Kinematic approach of the Limit Analysis theory (KLA). We first draw cross-sections containing a major shallow décollement level in the triassic evaporites, including the Alps up to the topographic maximum and including the whole crust. We submit the cross-sections to a compressive force at their southern end, and the KLA determines the location and geometry of the incipient ruptures by optimisation of the associated compressive force, accounting for mechanical balance and the rock strength (Coulomb criterion). Five cross-sections span the whole Jura from west to East, allowing us to explore the lateral variations. From the analysis of five hundred simulations (one hundred for each cross section), varying the friction angles on the Triassic décollement and of the lower crust between 1 deg and 10 deg, we have identified five types of tectonics at the Jura front depending on the emergence of a basement thrust beyond the Jura front (type 1), at the Jura front (type 2) with simultaneous activation of the shallow décollement (type 3), or south of the Jura front (type 5), with activation of the shallow décollement at the Jura front (type 4). The analysis allows us to draw two conclusions. First, the transitions between the various tectonic styles occur abruptly upon continuous changes in the friction parameters, revealing a threshold behaviour that we interpret as an extension of the concept of wedge criticality in the Critical Coulomb Wedge theory: at criticality, several tectonic types may occur within a narrow, critical, range of parameter values. Second, the critical range evolves sytematically between cross-sections, in such a way that the front of the thick-skinned deformation crosses laterally the Jura belt. The two most western cross-section exhibit only thin skin or no tectonics at the Jura front (types 1, 4 and 5), the central one hosts all five styles, and the two Eastern ones show thick-skin solutions (1, 2, 3), for all values tested. We also show that a thick-skinned tectonic style can be accompanied by a simultaneous activation of the shallow triassic décollement (type 4), complicating the interpretation of apparent thin-skin field structures. Modifications of our cross-sections to explore the effect of a bumpy upper/lower crust interface, or of a major décollement at the upper/lower crust interface show the robustness of our conclusions. They only modify slightly the critical ranges at which the tectonic changes occur. These findings may serve as guides, or first order questions, for more sophisticated mechanical approaches including temperature and rate dependent rheologies and the three dimensions of space.
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