Habitat choice often entails trade-offs between food availability and predation risk. Understanding the distribution of individuals in space thus requires that both habitat characteristics and predation risk are considered simultaneously. Here, we studied the nest box use of two arboreal squirrels who share preferred habitat with their main predators. Nocturnal Ural owls (Strix uralensis) decreased occurrence of night-active flying squirrels (Pteromys volans) and diurnal goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) that of day-active red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris). Unexpectedly, the amount of preferred habitat had no effect on nest box use, but, surprisingly, both squirrel species seemed to benefit from close proximity to agricultural fields and red squirrels to urban areas. We found no evidence of trade-off between settling in a high-quality habitat and avoiding predators. However, the amount of poor-quality young pine forests was lower in occupied sites where goshawks were present, possibly indicating habitat specific predation on red squirrels. The results suggest that erecting nest boxes for Ural owls should be avoided in the vicinity of flying squirrel territories in order to conserve the near threatened flying squirrels. Our results also suggest that flying squirrels do not always need continuous old forests, and hence the currently insufficient conservation practices could be improved with reasonable increases in the areas left untouched around their nests. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of taking into account both habitat requirements and predation risk as well as their interactive effects when modeling the occupancy of threatened animal species and planning their conservation.

Recent global warming and other anthropogenic changes have caused well‐documented range shifts and population declines in many species over a large spatial extent. Most large‐scale studies focus on birds, large mammals, and threatened species, whereas large‐scale population trends of small to medium‐sized mammals and species that are currently of least concern remain poorly studied. Large‐scale studies are needed because on a smaller scale, important patterns may be masked by local variation and stochastic processes. Here, we utilized snow track census data from Finland and NW Russia to estimate population growth rates of the Eurasian red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris for a period of 17 yr in an area of over 1 000 000 km2. We also studied the effects of changes in summer and winter temperatures, winter precipitation, predator abundance, and canopy cover on estimated red squirrel population growth rates. Our results suggest that red squirrel populations have declined in most parts of the study area, the only remarkable exception being SW Russia. These results are in concordance with previous studies suggesting that species that are still common and of least concern may be declining. However, our findings are in contrast to the common pattern of northern populations of boreal species increasing due to global warming. The estimated population growth rates are in synchrony over vast areas, suggesting that the underlying reasons also operate on a large scale. We indeed find that the population growth rate was lower in regions where winters warmed faster during the study period, suggesting that changes in the environment (or biotic changes associated with it) are linked with the decline of red squirrels.

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra-and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

the effect of winter food availability, that is, the lack of food is assumed to affect juveniles (boxes occupied only in autumn) more than adults (boxes occupied whole summer).

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