Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses, i.e. additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects.Currently we know little about the spatial scale relevant for the outcome of such interactions and about effect sizes. This knowledge gap needs to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions, for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. The study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalised linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive and 33% in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes the frequency of additive and interactive effects was similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers this frequency increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.

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Shallow lakes are globally the most numerous water bodies and are sensitive to external perturbations, including eutrophication and climate change, which threaten their functioning. Extreme events, such as heat waves (HWs), are expected to become more frequent with global warming. To elucidate the effects of nutrients, warming, and HWs on zooplankton community structure, we conducted an experiment in 24 flow-through mesocosms (1.9 m in diameter, 1.0 m deep) imitating shallow lakes. The mesocosms have two nutrient levels (high (HN) and low (LN)) crossed with three temperature scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of likely warming scenarios (unheated, A2, and A2 + 50%). The mesocosms had been running continuously with these treatments for 11 years prior to the HW simulation, which consisted of an additional 5 °C increase in temperature applied from 1 July to 1 August 2014. The results showed that nutrient effects on the zooplankton community composition and abundance were greater than temperature effects for the period before, during, and after the HW. Before the HW, taxon richness was higher, and functional group diversity and evenness were lower in HN than in LN. We also found a lower biomass of large Cladocera and a lower zooplankton: phytoplankton ratio, indicating higher fish predation in HN than in LN. Concerning the temperature treatment, we found some indication of higher fish predation with warming in LN, but no clear effects in HN. There was a positive nutrient and warming interaction for the biomass of total zooplankton, large and small Copepoda, and the zooplankton: phytoplankton ratio during the HW, which was attributed to recorded HW-induced fish kill. The pattern after the HW largely followed the HW response. Our results suggest a strong nutrient effect on zooplankton, while the effect of temperature treatment and the 5 °C HW was comparatively modest, and the changes likely largely reflected changes in predation.