Beszczynska-Möller, A., Fahrbach, E., Schauer, U., and Hansen, E. 2012. Variability in Atlantic water temperature and transport at the entrance to the Arctic Ocean, 1997–2010. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 852–863. The variability in Atlantic water temperature and volume transport in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC), based on measurements by an array of moorings in Fram Strait (78°50′N) over the period 1997–2010, is addressed. The long-term mean net volume transport in the current of 6.6 ± 0.4 Sv (directed northwards) delivered 3.0 ± 0.2 Sv of Atlantic water (AW) warmer than 2°C. The mean temperature of the AW inflow was 3.1 ± 0.1°C. On interannual time-scales, a nearly constant volume flux in the WSC core (long-term mean 1.8 ± 0.1 Sv northwards, including 1.3 ± 0.1 Sv of AW warmer than 2°C, and showing no seasonal variability) was accompanied by a highly variable transport of 2–6 Sv in the offshore branch (long-term mean of 5 ± 0.4 Sv, strong seasonal variability, and 1–2 Sv of warm AW). Two warm anomalies were found in the AW passing through Fram Strait in 1999–2000 and 2005–2007. For the period 1997–2010, there was a positive linear trend in the AW mean temperature of 0.06°C year−1, but no statistically significant trend was observed in the AW volume transport. A possible impact of warming on AW propagation in the Arctic Ocean and properties of the outflow to the North Atlantic are also discussed.

We present estimates of volume and heat transport through Fram Strait for the period 1997 to 2000 from data of moored instruments. The annual mean volume transports at 78°55′N were between 9 2 and 10 1 Sv northward and 13 2 and 12 1 Sv southward with a net transport between 4 2 and 2 2 Sv to the south. The temperature of the northward flow of Atlantic Water had a strong seasonality with a minimum in winter. Nevertheless, the northward heat transport was highest in winter caused by the winter maximum of northward volume transport. Between 1997 and 1999, the annual mean net heat transport across 78°55′N increased from 16 12 to 41 5 TW. This resulted from a very strong increase in heat transport in the West Spitsbergen Current (mean annual values from 28 5 to 44 6 TW and to 46 5 TW in 99/00) which was not compensated by an equivalent signal in the southward flow. The heat transport to the south remained constant within error limitations. Only half of the heat flux increase in the West Spitsbergen Current was due to a higher temperature; half of it was due to a stronger flow. A similar increase as observed between 1997 and 2000 would have been sufficient to explain the warming of intermediate layers in the Eurasian Arctic observed in the early 1990s. Consequently, we suggest that a warming signal from the late 1990s is presently spreading in the interior Arctic Ocean.

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