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Characteristics of 11,132 men aged 40-59 years and free from coronary heart disease (CHD) at entry were related to follow-up experience, using multivariate analysis. In 5 years among 2,404 U. S. railroad men and 8,728 European men there were 615 cases of CHD, 214 of whom died from CHD or suffered definite nonfatal infarction. With five entry characteristics (age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking habit, and body mass index), multiple logistic solutions for Europeans and Americans, separately, gave estimates of the individual probability of CHD. Classified by deciled scores for these probabilities, the expected and observed CHD cases were highly correlated (r = 0.930-0.981). Predictions based on European data applied to Americans, and vice versa, gave similar high correlations but American incidence was excessive compared with European experience. Application of the analysis coefficients obtained from data in Europe and in the U. S. railroad to 6,221 other U. S. men 40-59 years of age, CHD-free at entry, gave good prediction of relative risk (r = 0.94) for observed versus predicted cases in deciles of risk score; however, the actual numbers of cases were underpredicted. From single measurements of a few characteristics the multiple logistic solution usefully estimates the relative risk of CHD for individuals. Age, systolic pressure, and serum cholesterol are universally powerful predictors of risk. Variables not measured in this study or not yet identified contribute to the risk of CHD among American men.

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Ten-year mortality from coronary heart disease among 172,000 men classified by occupational physical activity. by Menotti A, Puddu V Key terms: coronary heart disease; epidemiology; heart disease; man; mortality; occupational physical activity; physical activity; risk factor years and employed by the Italian railroad system on 1 April 1963 have been classified by habitual physical activity at work and followed-up for death during a ten-year period. The overall crude mortality was 56.59 per 1,000 in ten years, and no significant differences were found between men in sedentary, moderate and heavy work. Age-corrected death rates for coronary heart disease, as manifested by myocardial infarction and sudden coronary death, were substantially different in the three activity groups, moderately active workers ranking first, sedentary workers second, but very close to the former, and very active workers being last. The age-corrected rates for all ages were 14.18, 12.55 and 7.63 per 1,000 in ten years, respectively. All differences were statistically sign]ficant, the mortality ratio between the sedentary and moderate groups oombined versus the heavy group being of the order of 1.75 to 1.