Due to a complicated epidemiological situation, current economic situation in Russia and the world gives a push to new researches in the field of ensure sustainable development in all branches of industry. Methods and tools available today cannot fully provide this, so modern economics needs to develop fundamentally new approaches to the study of industries. Within the framework of this research it is proposed to use simulation modeling to predict scenarios of sustainable development of certain industries, in particular metallurgy, mining of metal ores and production of finished metal products. The research is based on systemic-synergistic approach based on the theory of industrial organization, economic growth and development, system dynamics and mathematical economics. The simulation model of metallurgy and related industries development, which is based on a system dynamic flow – streaming stratification, was designed and developed as a result of this research. Ideas of three-sector model, adapted to the sectoral aspects of the functioning of the economic system, are used in the simulation model. The development allows to simulate various scenarios of the development of the industries under study in order to determine the trajectory of their sustainable development. As a demonstration, three scenarios of the development of industries are presented, taking into account changes in the most important component of the economic system - labor force.

Nowadays, in the context of the coronavirus crisis, the issue of ensuring the sustainable development of heavy industries is acute. However, theoretical and analytical researches alone are not sufficient for this, and economic science needs to develop fundamentally new approaches to the study of the development of industrial sectors. This article is devoted to the creation and testing of a simulation model for the development of individual sectors of the economy. The object of research is the metallurgical industry, as well as related ore mining, mechanical engineering and production of finished metal products. The theoretical basis of the research is a systematic approach that combines the theory of industry markets, economic growth, industrial economics, system dynamics and mathematical economics. The main research methods used are system analysis, statistical analysis to identify trends in changes in the main economic indicators, econometric modeling to build production functions, as well as mathematical modeling of macroeconomic systems. As a result, a simulation model developed in system dynamics notation is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate the development of individual industries taking into account various changes. This model is built on the basis of the three-sector model of the national economy, where separate adjacent industries connected by dynamic feedback loops are identified as structural elements. The paper details the structure of the simulation model based on first-order dynamic equations, balance equations and nonlinear production functions. The simulation model allowed us to predict a number of scenarios for the development of metallurgical industries, taking into account changes in the labor force and investment in fixed assets. The results of the work can be used for forming proposals on industrial policy, monitoring the condition and efficiency of individual industries.