View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 5 View citing articles Optimisation of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation activities, timing and work zones for short survey sections and multiple distress types

Road agencies employ different criteria and methods to compare treatment alternatives and develop maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) programmes for their networks. The maximisation of benefits has been integrated in several leading pavement management systems and used for network-level programming since the 1980s. The approach defines benefit as the area between the performance curves with and without M&R actions based on an aggregated index, representing the overall pavement condition. Further simplifications like the screening of solutions using an efficiency frontier and the incremental benefit-cost technique have made it possible to apply the method with the available computing power at the time. Based on a case study of 1000 road sections, this paper analyses the effect of benefit maximisation on annual budget, network condition, treatment selection, trigger values and remaining life. M&R programmes minimising costs and maximising benefits are compared at the project and network level for various budget scenarios. The results show that the maximisation of benefits based on an aggregated condition index leads to substantially higher agency costs and favours the selection of expensive treatments with earlier timing, irrespective of actual failure causes. The conclusions of this work may be useful to road agencies in developing more efficient budget-allocation polices.

An accurate estimation of service life is of primary interest in pavement management systems limiting the time frame for maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) treatments. Common condition prediction models are derived by regression analysis at the road network level based on empirical data from periodic condition surveys. If a particular section has not failed prior to the last survey or the condition has improved (e.g. due to treatment), it is considered as censored. If censoring is neglected the performance functions, service lives and estimated costs may show substantial bias. The authors who acknowledge this problem have used standard statistical (survival analysis) techniques accounting for censoring. However, any road section may fail due to different but dependent competing failure causes (risks), each leading to treatments. This constitutes a special type of censoring that cannot be addressed with traditional survival analysis methods relying on the assumption of independent censoring. As the number of failure causes usually exceeds one (e.g. fatigue, permanent deformation, thermal cracking), this case is quite common. Moreover, the time until a first failure depends on the sign and degree of correlation between present failure types being modelled by the overall survival function. This paper presents a critical review and comparison of common regression, Markov chain and survival analysis models with and without correlated competing risks based on computer-generated data. Using performance history and distress progression models at the section level in combination with survival analysis improves the accuracy of predictions in comparison. Furthermore, the paper proposes a simultaneous modelling of joint and marginal service life distributions based on copula functions as generalised solution accounting for dependence between competing risks. As the focus of this paper is on condition prediction with censored data, the distress-specific planning and optimisation of treatments will be covered in forthcoming papers.

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