We identified a wide range of possible approaches to reduce cognitive errors in diagnosis. Not all the suggestions have been tested, and of those that have, the evaluations typically involved trainees in artificial settings, making it difficult to extrapolate the results to actual practice. Future progress in this area will require methodological refinements in outcome evaluation and rigorously evaluating interventions already suggested, many of which are well conceptualised and widely endorsed.

IMPORTANCE Little is known about the relationship between physicians' diagnostic accuracy and their confidence in that accuracy. OBJECTIVE To evaluate how physicians' diagnostic calibration, defined as the relationship between diagnostic accuracy and confidence in that accuracy, changes with evolution of the diagnostic process and with increasing diagnostic difficulty of clinical case vignettes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We recruited general internists from an online physician community and asked them to diagnose 4 previously validated case vignettes of variable difficulty (2 easier; 2 more difficult). Cases were presented in a web-based format and divided into 4 sequential phases simulating diagnosis evolution: history, physical examination, general diagnostic testing data, and definitive diagnostic testing. After each phase, physicians recorded 1 to 3 differential diagnoses and corresponding judgments of confidence. Before being presented with definitive diagnostic data, physicians were asked to identify additional resources they would require to diagnose each case (ie, additional tests, second opinions, curbside consultations, referrals, and reference materials). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Diagnostic accuracy (scored as 0 or 1), confidence in diagnostic accuracy (on a scale of 0-10), diagnostic calibration, and whether additional resources were requested (no or yes). RESULTS A total of 118 physicians with broad geographical representation within the United States correctly diagnosed 55.3% of easier and 5.8% of more difficult cases (P < .001). Despite a large difference in diagnostic accuracy between easier and more difficult cases, the difference in confidence was relatively small (7.2 vs 6.4 out of 10, for easier and more difficult cases, respectively) (P < .001) and likely clinically insignificant. Overall, diagnostic calibration was worse for more difficult cases (P < .001) and characterized by overconfidence in accuracy. Higher confidence was related to decreased requests for additional diagnostic tests (P = .01); higher case difficulty was related to more requests for additional reference materials (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Our study suggests that physicians' level of confidence may be relatively insensitive to both diagnostic accuracy and case difficulty. This mismatch might prevent physicians from reexamining difficult cases where their diagnosis may be incorrect.

BackgroundAudit and feedback (A&F) is a strategy that has been used in various disciplines for performance and quality improvement. There is limited research regarding medical professionals’ acceptance of clinical-performance feedback and whether feedback impacts clinical practice. The objectives of our research were to (1) investigate aspects of A&F that impact physicians’ acceptance of performance feedback; (2) determine actions physicians take when receiving feedback; and (3) determine if feedback impacts physicians’ patient-management behavior.MethodsIn this qualitative study, we employed grounded theory methods to perform a secondary analysis of semi-structured interviews with 12 VA primary care physicians. We analyzed a subset of interview questions from the primary study, which aimed to determine how providers of high, low and moderately performing VA medical centers use performance feedback to maintain and improve quality of care, and determine perceived utility of performance feedback.ResultsBased on the themes emergent from our analysis and their observed relationships, we developed a model depicting aspects of the A&F process that impact feedback acceptance and physicians’ patient-management behavior. The model is comprised of three core components – Reaction, Action and Impact – and depicts elements associated with feedback recipients’ reaction to feedback, action taken when feedback is received, and physicians modifying their patient-management behavior. Feedback characteristics, the environment, external locus-of-control components, core values, emotion and the assessment process induce or deter reaction, action and impact.Feedback characteristics (content and timeliness), and the procedural justice of the assessment process (unjust penalties) impact feedback acceptance. External locus-of-control elements (financial incentives, competition), the environment (patient volume, time constraints) and emotion impact patient-management behavior. Receiving feedback generated intense emotion within physicians. The underlying source of the emotion was the assessment process, not the feedback. The emotional response impacted acceptance, impelled action or inaction, and impacted patient-management behavior. Emotion intensity was associated with type of action taken (defensive, proactive, retroactive).ConclusionsFeedback acceptance and impact have as much to do with the performance assessment process as it does the feedback. In order to enhance feedback acceptance and the impact of feedback, developers of clinical performance systems and feedback interventions should consider multiple design elements.