This article expounds one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between tourist arrivals and gross domestic product (GDP) in Montenegro and Slovenia. Both countries are newcomers on the tourist destinations map, derived from what was previously Yugoslav republics existing as a singular emerging tourist destination. Data vector for empirical analysis covers quarterly change of GDP at constant prices and monthly data for tourist arrivals during January 2010 -December 2019 as an endogenous variable. The cointegration is used in the modelling structure. The empirical results confirm research hypothesis of uni-causal relationship of economic growth-led domestic tourism growth in Montenegro and one cointegrated vector. No cointegration vector was confirmed for Slovenia. These results are important for research, policymakers and tourism practice. Considering that, tourism and economic growth have a different distribution of causalities during the expansion period with a boost of tourist arrivals and vice versa during the economic downturn.
Many researchers have shown that capital markets in CEE countries are weakly efficient in terms of calendar anomalies. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether the capital market in Montenegro is efficient regarding some of these anomalies. The main characteristics of the Montenegrin capital market are briefly explained. The empirical analysis is done on the daily values data of stock market index NEX20. An investigation of the January effect is implemented with the graphical representation of the rate of return for all the months of the seven-year period and by estimation of a regression model of return on index NEX20. The intercept represents the value of the return in January and it is insignificant. The holiday effect, tested by graphical representation for the Statehood Day data, was not present in the whole period. To investigate the turn-of-the-month effect we employed the graphical representation and regression model of the return rate on index NEX20 for the last week of every month and for the rest of the month. The value of the intercept, representing return for the last week of the month, is significant. The absence of some tested calendar anomalies suggests that the Montenegrin capital market is becoming more efficient
The subject of research in this paper is the profitability of the biggest banks in the European financial market, some of which operate in Montenegro. The profitability of banks is influenced by a large number of factors, including internal banking and external macroeconomic factors. The aim of this paper is to use statistical and econometric methods to examine which factors and with what intensity affect the profitability of large banks in Europe. The empirical analysis used highly balanced panel models with annual data on 47 large banks from 14 European countries over the period 2013-2018. Three static panel models were estimated and evaluated (pooled ordinary least squares, model with fixed effects and model with random effects), as well as dynamic model utilizing general methods of moments. The POLS model was chosen as the best, confirming that all macroeconomic factors have a statistically significant impact on the profitability of big banks, while the impact of internal factors, which are controlled by the bank’s management, is not significant. GDP growth rate, inflation rate and market concentration have a positive effect on profitability, while the membership of the European Union has a negative impact on profit, meaning that banks with headquarters outside the EU are more profitable.
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