Risks always accompany any possible type of activity, it is a complex economic concept, without an effective management system which it is impossible to imagine the functioning of a modern enterprise. Close attention has always been paid to the creation and improvement of the risk management system, while the very nature of this economic category predetermines multiple and diverse approaches, both to the assessment methodology and to the management methodology. Systematization of numerous and diverse risks is the basis for creating an effective system for their further identification, analysis and description, in order to increase the effectiveness of risk management. The issues addressed in this article allow you to take a fresh look at the construction and use of the risk management system

Ensuring the harmonious economic development of enterprises in leading sectors of the economy requires constant monitoring of the objectives and the availability of a plan to combat potential crises at various levels of management. The experience of implementing the tools of operational and strategic controlling in enterprises shows a significant increase in the level of competitiveness, improving the forecasting of rapid response to such a problem. The purpose of this article is development of an improved model of analysis and forecasting of the probability of crisis and bankruptcy for the enterprises in confectionery industry. The article analyzes the confectionery industry of Ukraine. The main problems and prospects of the industry development are identified. Strategic controlling as a tool of crisis management is considered. The model of the analysis and forecasting of probability of a crisis situation and bankruptcy at the enterprises of the industry is developed. In contrast to the existing ones, the proposed model for confectionery companies considers the importance of financial indicators in the dynamics, as well as takes into account the external factors of the country (political and social environment). The main advantage is that it is designed for domestic enterprises and allows to take into account their quality indicators and the specifics of activities, as well as the macroeconomic situation in the country. The universality of the indicator of financial condition assessment is that it can be applied both to joint-stock companies (participants of stock exchanges, foreign economic activity) and to enterprises that do not operate in the stock market and are not engaged in foreign economic activity (the first part of the formula). A confectionery company can successfully fight competition only if effective controlling is applied. The calculation of indicators according to the proposed model in a few years will help to predict the threat of a crisis in order to timely implement the necessary management measures to address current problems and avoid them in the future. Preventive anti-crisis management with the use of operational and strategic controlling tools will ensure the implementation of goals and increase the efficiency of the company's management.

The article reveals the essence of the concept of hypothesis and the differences between hypothesis and prediction, where predictions are often seen as predictions, and the hypothesis as a reasonable assumption, tested and confirmed by research. Its characteristics are formed: it should be simple but clear to look reliable and justified enough; should be written in an explanatory form and should preserve and reflect the space for further research and experimentation. Identified sources that can be referred to when creating a hypothesis for research: research papers and theories on the subject, observations from previous experiments and recent theories, general paradigms that run through the field of research on a particular topic, similarities and relativity between different research topics. Formulated types of hypotheses: an alternative hypothesis with two subcategories, which include directed, used in cases where you want to establish a relationship between different variables, and without direction, undirected, alternative hypothesis, which does not provide any direction for the expected results; null hypothesis, which determines the opposite of the expected results or results throughout the study; a simple hypothesis that reflects the relationship between dependent and independent variables; complex hypothesis, which assumes the relationship between several dependent or independent variables set out in the research problem; empirical hypothesis, which is a "working hypothesis" and is tested by experiment and observation; statistical hypothesis which is explained after studying the sample of the population. The identified steps to create a convincing hypothesis argue that it is necessary to identify and clearly describe the research question, conduct a primary, preliminary study, draft the first hypothesis, revise the hypothesis, create a three-dimensional phrase hypothesis, create a null hypothesis.

The article considers the role and importance of the balance sheet in the system of economic valuations. By generalizing the existing balance theories and the development of the balance, the directions of its development are established and the main changes of its format for the future are outlined. This process is due to many factors and is mainly determined by the development of the information society and the growing information needs of stakeholders. The ability of the balance sheet to comprehensively assess the financial condition of the enterprise is possible by updating its structure. If the balance sheet formula remains unchanged for a long time, the components of the balance sheet elements (assets, capital and liabilities) undergo transformations due to the application of the new classification features. This has a direct impact on improving the quality of financial reporting of enterprises. It is substantiated that satisfying the information needs of stakeholders, the balance sheet format is improved under the influence of the adopted accounting system, the accounting model of the state and the accounting policy of the enterprise (organization). Taking into account the factors of influence on the balance of the enterprise specified in the article, it is possible to achieve its compliance with the modern accounting and economic model. Despite the legal minimum requirements for assets, capital and liabilities, the management of the balance sheet process is influenced by the company’s accounting policies. Due to the criterion of materiality, companies can detail individual articles, or leave them in aggregate form, which allows to ensure either maximum transparency of the financial condition, or protection of economic data of the company. The inclusion of the book value of assets in the quantitative criteria for the classification of enterprises by size requires periodic review of ranges, expressed in conventional units, to ensure the principle of proportionality of the classification of economic entities. As the format and content of balance sheets of different economic entities differ in institutional sectors, as well as the size of enterprises, in order to ensure the unity of their generalized data and macroeconomic reports there is a need to develop and approve a single methodological approach to balance sheet, which would provide unambiguous uniformity of rules for all subjects of economic activity.

Introduction. Analysis of the financial condition of the confectionery industry shows that in general most indicators have a positive trend, but some of them sometimes have negative values. This indicates the existing threats of bankruptcy, so the question of improving the methodology for identifying the crisis and developing the concept of crisis management of confectionery, including the use of controlling as a tool to prevent crises. The purpose of this article is determining the role of quality controlling in anti-crisis management of a confectionery enterprise on the basis of a cost-oriented approach. Results. The essence of the modern concept of anti-crisis cost-oriented management of a confectionery enterprise is revealed and its main structure is given in the article. Controlling as a function of enterprise management is considered. The necessity of the complex approach at research of tools of anti-crisis regulation and management is proved. The essence of complexity is revealed, which is the need to include in the control system of quality indicators in accordance with the System of Hazard Analysis (HACCP) and EU guidelines for its application with the identification of hazards at critical control points (CCPs). The essence of cost-oriented management of the confectionery enterprise is revealed. It is noted that it proceeds from the need to avoid the threat of crisis manifestations. The factors of their occurrence are given, among which the most essential are technological and organizational-production factors which are reduced to a cost component. Conclusions. The controlling system at the confectionery enterprise, along with the indicators of financial condition, should identify any technological or organizational-production aspect of its activity that is important for food safety, as well as ensure that appropriate safety procedures are established, implemented, followed and updated, based on the principles that were used to develop the HACCP system. This approach corresponds the Strategy for the Development of Exports of Agricultural Products, Food and Processing Industry of Ukraine – 2026. Key words: confectionery enterprise, controlling, crisis, cost-oriented management, dangerous factors, critical control points.