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In order to reduce emergencies and damages to equipment, it is relevant to devise new methods for the estimations of risk and prediction of the technical condition of ship CTS. 2. Literature review and problem statement From the point of view of technical safety, quantitative assessments of the risk of CTS failures are a necessary and complex problem, which requires development and application of special mathematical apparatus. As follows from [6], the solution of applied problems of such type is frequently based on the methods of mathematical and statistical modeling, the method of analysis "tree of failures", etc. At present, among the methods for modeling the reliability, there is an advanced technology of the automated structural-logical simulation and calculation of reliability, safety of complex systems objects and processes, effectiveness and risk in the functioning of systems [7]. Reliability of ship CTS depends on a large number of factors, which characterize their design, conditions of production and operation. This leads to the fact that the 4

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