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This study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The variables were transformed into natural logarithms, wherein only the logarithm of public expenditure to output ratio is stationary and the others are non-stationary I1. The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner’s law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner’s law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure.

The purpose of this research is to estimate the dynamic impacts of foreign direct investments (FDI) and exports on economic growth in Peru (1970–2020) using annual series. Starting with the theoretical Mundell–Fleming static model with assumptions, we find that the change in exports does not affect GDP, and the effect of FDI on GDP can be positive or negative depending on the comparison between the slopes of the IS and LM curves. The variables are foreign direct investment net flow (% of GDP), exports of goods and services (% of GDP), and GDP growth rate (%). FDI and exports constitute first-order integrated processes; meanwhile, the GDP growth rate is a stationary process. The Granger causality evidences feedback between GDP and exports and the FDI-led growth hypothesis. Considering the dependent variable GDP growth rate, the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration bound test shows the findings regarding the cointegration consist of positive long-term equilibrium impacts from exports and FDI on GDP. Estimating an error correction model, in the short-term, the FDI explains to GDP and the exports have an insignificant impact on economic growth in Peru. Estimating an error correction model, in the short-term, the FDI explains that GDP and exports have an insignificant impact on economic growth in Peru. Finally, we conclude that Peru’s economic policy path should continue to attract foreign capital to increase FDI.

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En este documento se realiza una revisión de literatura de los distintos modelos teóricos y de las diversas metodologías empíricas que se han utilizado, tanto a nivel nacional como a nivel internacional, para estimar los impactos de las variaciones del salario mínimo sobre el empleo. En la literatura distinguimos la adopción de dos modelos teóricos [modelo competitivo y modelos no competitivos (el modelo de monopsonio y el modelo de mercado laboral con fricciones en la búsqueda y el emparejamiento)] y de seis aproximaciones empíricas (que utilizan datos de corte transversal repetidos, series de tiempo, datos de panel, cuasi experimentos, meta-regresiones, y que estiman y/o calibran modelos de búsqueda y emparejamiento) al momento de efectuar el análisis del impacto del salario mínimo sobre el empleo en el mercado de trabajo. La evidencia empírica, nacional e internacional, muestra una gran diversidad de resultados; sin embargo, las meta-regresiones y los trabajos que utilizan series de tiempo con datos agregados, en general, proporcionan evidencias de modestos efectos negativos estadísticamente significativos de los incrementos de los salarios mínimos sobre el empleo (sobre todo en adolescentes). Finalmente, la evidencia internacional nos hace entrever que el debate y las interrogantes sobre la amplia diversidad de resultados obtenidos continuará con el transcurrir del tiempo.