Introduction and hypothesis The aim of this study was to prospectively identify aspects of baseline demographic, clinical, and pelvic morphology of women with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) that are predictive of cure with physiotherapist-supervised pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT). Methods Women ≥18 years old with SUI were recruited from urogynecology and pelvic health physiotherapy clinics. Participants completed a 3-day bladder diary, the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire Urinary Incontinence Short Form (ICIQ-UI-SF), a standardized pad test, manual assessment of pelvic floor muscle (PFM) strength and tone, and transperineal ultrasound (TPUS) assessment of their urogenital structures at rest while in a supine position and standing, and during contraction, straining, and coughing. Participants attended six physiotherapy sessions over 12 weeks and performed a home PFMT program. The assessment was repeated after the intervention; cure was defined as a dry (≤2 g) pad test. Results Seventy-seven women aged 50 (±10) years completed the protocol; 38 (49%) were deemed cured. Based on univariate testing, four predictors were entered into a binary logistic regression model: ICIQ-UI-SF, PFM tone, bladder neck (BN) height in a quiet standing position, and BN height during a cough in a standing position. The model was significant (p < 0.001), accurately classifying outcome in 74% of participants. The model, validated through bootstrapping, performed moderately, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.69–0.90; p = 0.00), and with 70% sensitivity and 75% specificity. Conclusions Women with better bladder support in a standing position and less severe symptoms were most likely to be cured with PFMT. Clinical trial registration #NCT01602107.

In this cohort of primiparous women after a term singleton delivery, we found only minor improvement in sonographic appearance of the EAS between 4.7 months and 26.4 months on transperineal ultrasound imaging, arguing against any significant degree of structural recovery during this time period.

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