Over the past 20 years, several epidemiological studies have found an association between exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMFs) and health effects, including childhood leukemia and adult brain cancer. However, experts strongly disagree about whether this association is causal and, if so, how strong it is. In this article, we examine several alternatives to reduce EMFs from sources of the California power grid, including undergrounding distribution and transmission lines and reconfiguring or rephasing lines. The alternatives were evaluated in terms of the potential health risk reduction, cost, impacts on service reliability, property values, and many other consequences. Because of the uncertainty about an EMF-health link, the main effort was to determine the sensitivity of the decisions to the probability and seriousness of an EMF hazard. User-friendly computer models were developed to allow stakeholders to change the model assumptions and parameters to analyze the impacts of their own assumptions and estimates on the decision. The analysis clearly demonstrated that only four of the many concerns raised by the stakeholders could make a difference in the decision: health risks, costs, service reliability, and property values. Whether undergrounding, moderate alternatives for EMF reduction, or no change was the best decision depended on a few key factors, including the probability that EMF exposure is a hazard, the severity of this hazard, how the EMF reduction measures are financed, and the impacts on property values. While the analysis did not resolve the EMF issues, it showed that even in the most controversial settings, a little analysis goes a long way to clarifying the issues and to focus the debate.
When sufficient empirical data are available, computer modelling may give a more accurate estimate of the effects of measurement errors than algebraic corrections.
Emission data are inadequate to characterize the contribution of a source to the total personal extremely-low-frequency (ELF) magnetic field exposure. In this paper, a simple model is proposed that takes into consideration the position of the subject with respect to the source and the duration of exposure. The magnetic field is spatially averaged over the whole body of the exposed subject and integrated over time. Exposure is regarded as significant if it approaches or exceeds 400 microT-h/year. By use of this method, the ELF magnetic fields generated by several household sources were compared with the levels of residential external sources, to assess their relative significance. Some common domestic electrical appliances are found to be responsible for an exposure comparable to that from power lines. When the model is used to assess exposure to electric blankets, apparently conflicting findings may be reconciled.
In several countries, epidemiological studies are being planned, or are in progress, to test the hypothesis that a causal relation exists between exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields and cancer incidence. One of the major difficulties in these studies is the development of valid and efficient protocols to assess magnetic field exposure. In studies focusing on residential magnetic fields, many researchers are turning to recently developed stationary automated magnetic field monitors to characterize exposure. We argue that a relatively small number of manually collected 'spot' measurements may be an adequate alternative which has several advantages. We compared a dichotomous exposure classification based on continuous magnetic field monitoring of 40 houses with that obtained through 'spot' measurements randomly sampled from the continuous records. We found that a single spot measurement had at least an 80% chance of classifying houses correctly and that this probability did not increase significantly as the number of readings was increased. We also calculated the sensitivity and specificity of various simulated measurement protocols and, from these, the effect of misclassification on estimates of relative risk. Since relatively large spatial variations in background magnetic field exist in many homes, we suggest that a small number of readings collected manually at several points within a residence may characterize the magnetic field better than continuous monitoring at one fixed location.
Many epidemiological studies have investigated the claim that work with video display terminals (VDT) is a risk factor during pregnancy. Results have been inconsistent, although in the majority of cases the hypothesis was not supported. Exposure assessment has been very poor and the statistical power of the studies generally low. Overall, the studies indicate that VDT operators are not at greater risk than the general population, because very low frequency (VLF) magnetic fields do not appear to be a risk factor and extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic field exposure is not significantly greater than that experienced in other occupational and residential environments. However, since some studies lend support to the hypothesis that ELF magnetic fields may be a risk factor for pregnancy outcome, studies of subjects exposed to higher than average ELF fields are justified.
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