On 31 August a new eruption began from the same fissure and is still ongoing at the time of writing. After 4 September the movement associated with the dyke was minor, suggesting an approximate equilibrium between inflow of magma into the dyke and magma flowing out of it feeding the eruption. Minor eruptions may have occurred under Vatnajškull; shallow ice depressions marked by circular crevasses (ice cauldrons) were discovered in the period 27/08-07/09, indicating leakage of magma or magmatic heat to the glacier causing basal melting ( Fig. 1 and 2b). On 5 September, aircraft radar profiling showed that the ice surface in the centre of the B ‡r!arbunga caldera had subsided 16 m relative to the surroundings, resulting in a 0.32±0.08 km 3 subsidence bowl ( can be compared to a 1 day interferogram over the ice surface spanning 27 -28 August (Fig. 1), that has maximum line-of-sight (LOS) increase of 57 cm, indicating 55-70 cm of subsidence, during 24 hours. From 24 August to 6 September 16 M≥5 earthquakes occurred on the caldera boundary.Over 22000 earthquakes were automatically detected 16/08-06/09 2014, 5000 of which have been manually checked. Four thousand of these have been relatively relocated, defining the dyke segments. Ground deformation in areas outside the Vatnajškull ice cap, and on nunataks within the ice cap, is well mapped by a combination of InSAR, continuously recording GPS sites, and campaign GPS measurements. The GPS observations and analysis give the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional displacements used in the modelling (Fig. 1). Interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images from the COSMO-SkyMed, RADARSAT-2 and TerraSAR-X satellites was used to form 11 interferograms showing LOS change spanning different time intervals (Supplementary Fig. 2). The analysis of seismic and geodetic data is described in Methods.Initial modelling of the dyke, with no a priori constraints on position, strike or dip, show the deformation data require the dyke to be approximately vertical and line up with the seismicity (Extended Data item 4). We therefore fixed the dip to be vertical and the lateral position of the dyke to coincide with the earthquake locations.We modelled the dyke as a series of rectangular patches and estimated the opening and slip on each patch ( Fig. 3a; see Supplementary Figures 3-4 for slip and standard deviations of opening). We used a Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate 7 the multivariate probability distribution for all model parameters (Methods) on each day 16/08-06/09 2014 (Fig. 2d). The results suggest that most of the magma injected into the dyke is shallower than the seismicity, which mostly spans the depth range from 5 to 8 km below sea level (see Fig. 2c and Methods). While magma may extend to depths greater than 9 km near the centre of the ice cap, towards the edge of the ice cap where constraints from InSAR and GPS are much better, significant opening is all shallower than 5 km (Fig. 3a). The total volume intruded into the dyke by 28 August was 0.48-0...

40Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with collapse of the roof of a crustal magma 41 reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century and lack of detailed 42 observations has obscured insight on mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use Calderas are 1 -100 km diameter depressions found in volcanic regions of Earth and other planets. basaltic andesite) intrusive activity and eruptions (2,(9)(10)(11)(12). 59The consensus from field and modelling studies is that caldera collapse progresses from initial 60 surface downsag to fault-controlled subsidence (1, 8, 13, 14). The pre-collapse topography is obtained by subtracting the subsidence observed at the surface. As we recorded the caldera subsidence mainly on the ice (Fig. 1, Fig. S1), we made corrections and (Fig. 3A). We therefore conclude that suggestions of a large increase in ice flow out of the caldera 147 during these events (25) cannot be fitted with our data. 148Bedrock subsidence exceeding 1 m occurred within an area of 110 km 2 that extended beyond the 149 pre-existing caldera (Fig. 1, Fig. S1). After termination of collapse the total subsidence at the pre-150 existing caldera rims amounted to 3 to 11 meters ( Fig. 1D and 1E). Using subglacial radio-echo GPS station in the center of the caldera (Fig. 1A), including the rate of vertical rate of ice surface Cumulative number of M>4 caldera earthquakes, with magnitude evolution colored in red, blue and 176 grey representing clusters on the southern rim, the northern rim and smaller clusters, respectively 177 (see Fig. S5). E) Cumulative seismic moment for M>4 caldera earthquakes. from analysis of subaerial gas measurements (Fig. 4). This depth concurs with our regional on FTIR and Multi-GAS measurements (24). 194Seismicity and subsurface structure 195 We used seismic data and Distinct Element Method (DEM) numerical modelling (24), to 196 characterize the deeper collapse structure as the reactivation of a steeply-inclined ring fault (Fig. 5). 197We mostly observed seismicity at depths of 0-9 km beneath the northern and southern caldera rims 198( Fig. 5B), with earthquakes being more numerous on the northern rim. This spatial pattern of 199 seismicity is consistent with fracturing above a deflating magma reservoir that was elliptical in (Fig. 5C, D). Our best fitting models had preexisting faults dipping out at 80-85¡ from the caldera 207 center on the north side and at 85-90¡ toward the caldera center on the south side. The modeled pre- 208existing faults lay at 1-2 km below the surface on the north side and 3-4 km on the south side. 209Modeling of a more complex fault geometry or the inclusion of greater material heterogeneity may 210 further improve the data fit, but presently lacks robust geophysical constraints. components of the observed earthquakes at B ‡rdarbunga. We, however, narrowed down on 222 plausible solutions by using the micro-earthquakes (Fig. 5A). The moment tensor solutions are well 223 constrained, but the inferred d...

The 6-month long eruption at Holuhraun (August 2014-February 2015) in the Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn volcanic system was the largest effusive eruption in Iceland since the 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption. The lava flow field covered~84 km 2 and has an estimated bulk (i.e., including vesicles) volume of~1.44 km 3. The eruption had an average discharge rate of~90 m 3 /s making it the longest effusive eruption in modern times to sustain such high average flux. The first phase of the eruption (August 31, 2014 to mid-October 2014) had a discharge rate of~350 to 100 m 3 /s and was typified by lava transport via open channels and the formation of four lava flows, no. 1-4, which were emplaced side by side. The eruption began on a 1.8 km long fissure, feeding partly incandescent sheets of slabby pāhoehoe up to 500 m wide. By the following day the lava transport got confined to open channels and the dominant lava morphology changed to rubbly pāhoehoe and 'a'ā. The latter became the dominating morphology of lava flows no. 1-8. The second phase of the eruption (Mid-October to end November) had a discharge of~100-50 m 3 /s. During this time the lava transport system changed, via the formation of a b 1 km 2 lava pond~1 km east of the vent. The pond most likely formed in a topographical low created by a the pre-existing Holuhraun and the new Holuhraun lava flow fields. This pond became the main point of lava distribution, controlling the emplacement of subsequent flows (i.e. no. 5-8). Towards the end of this phase inflation plateaus developed in lava flow no. 1. These inflation plateaus were the surface manifestation of a growing lava tube system, which formed as lava ponded in the open lava channels creating sufficient lavastatic pressure in the fluid lava to lift the roof of the lava channels. This allowed new lava into the previously active lava channel lifting the channel roof via inflation. The final (third) phase, lasting from December to end-February 2015 had a mean discharge rate of~50 m 3 /s. In this phase the lava transport was mainly confined to lava tubes within lava flows no. 1-2, which fed breakouts that resurfaced N 19 km 2 of the flow field. The primary lava morphology from this phase was spiny pāhoehoe, which superimposed on the 'a'ā lava flows no. 1-3 and extended the entire length of the flow field (i.e. 17 km). This made the 2014-2015 Holuhraun a paired flow field, where both lava morphologies had similar length. We suggest that the similar length is a consequence of the pāhoehoe is fed from the tube system utilizing the existing 'a'ā lava channels, and thereby are controlled by the initial length of the 'a'ā flows.

GPS measurements spanning 2008 to 2014 are used to derive the surface velocity field across the Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) of Iceland, a subaerial part of the divergent boundary between the North American and Eurasian plates. No volcanic activity nor magmatic intrusions were detected in the zone during this time period. We infer an extensional rate of 17.4 −0.3+0.2 mm/yr in direction 292.0 −0.6+0.5°, consistent with the results of previous studies and current plate motion models including MORVEL2010 and GEODVEL2010. The horizontal velocity field reveals about 50 km wide stretching zone caused by the divergent plate movements. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) induces uplift of over 20 mm/yr at the northern edge of Vatnajökull ice cap and 3–4 mm/yr horizontal motion directed away from the ice cap. Deformation in the NVZ between 2008 and 2014 can be reproduced by a combination of models relating to several different processes: (i) Mogi sources for volcanic and geothermal deformation at the Askja and Krafla volcanoes, (ii) scaled version of a velocity field derived from a glacial isostatic model, and (iii) simple arctangent‐based model for secular plate spreading. We find the approximate location of the plate boundary spreading axis as well as its locking depth. The spreading axis lies through the Krafla, Fremrinámar, and Askja central volcanoes, the most active ones in the NVZ. It does not appear to follow the general direction of each fissure swarm but rather to change direction at the central volcanoes. The locking depth is on average within the 7–9 km range.

Tungnafellsjškull; stress triggering; subsurface fault mapping. 47