As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A major challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key epidemiological parameters and how they change when first interventions show an effect. By combining an established epidemiological model with Bayesian inference, we analyzed the time dependence of the effective growth rate of new infections. Focusing on COVID-19 spread in Germany, we detected change points in the effective growth rate that correlate well with the times of publicly announced interventions. Thereby, we could quantify the effect of interventions and incorporate the corresponding change points into forecasts of future scenarios and case numbers. Our code is freely available and can be readily adapted to any country or region.

Cross-frequency coupling (CFC) has been proposed to coordinate neural dynamics across spatial and temporal scales. Despite its potential relevance for understanding healthy and pathological brain function, the standard CFC analysis and physiological interpretation come with fundamental problems. For example, apparent CFC can appear because of spectral correlations due to common non-stationarities that may arise in the total absence of interactions between neural frequency components. To provide a road map towards an improved mechanistic understanding of CFC, we organize the available and potential novel statistical/modeling approaches according to their biophysical interpretability. While we do not provide solutions for all the problems described, we provide a list of practical recommendations to avoid common errors and to enhance the interpretability of CFC analysis.