Studies have reported significant reductions in air pollutant levels due to the COVID-19 outbreak worldwide due to global lockdowns. Nevertheless, all of the reports are limited compared to data from the same period over the past few years, providing mainly an overview of past events, with no future predictions. Lockdown level can be directly related to the number of new COVID-19 cases, air pollution, and economic restriction. As lockdown status varies considerably across the globe, there is a window for mega-cities to determine the optimum lockdown flexibility. To that end, firstly, we employed four different Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to examine the compatibility to the original levels of CO, O
3
, NO
2
, NO, PM
2.5
, and PM
10
, for São Paulo City, the current Pandemic epicenter in South America. After checking compatibility, we simulated four hypothetical scenarios: 10%, 30%, 70%, and 90% lockdown to predict air pollution levels. To our knowledge, ANN have not been applied to air pollution prediction by lockdown level. Using a limited database, the Multilayer Perceptron neural network has proven to be robust (with Mean Absolute Percentage Error ∼ 30%), with acceptable predictive power to estimate air pollution changes. We illustrate that air pollutant levels can effectively be controlled and predicted when flexible lockdown measures are implemented. The models will be a useful tool for governments to manage the delicate balance among lockdown, number of COVID-19 cases, and air pollution.
We report the first successful preparation of polyelectrolyte brushes using an ATRP initiator that was covalently grafted to silica and mica substrates via an organophosphonic acid.
Sel f-mutilation is a behavior commonly observed in patients with some psychiatric disorders, such as borderline personality disorder, depression, and schizophrenia. These patients inflict lesions to their own bodies, although with no intent to commit suicide. Self-mutilation events described in schizophrenic patients include castration, enucleation of the eye, amputation of hands, and skin lesions. These individuals state that they hear voices telling them to get rid of parts of their bodies.1,2 Dworkin 3 also suggests that self-mutilation in schizophrenic patients is related to a lower pain threshold.
Particulate matter (PM) is one of the most harmful air pollutants to human health studied worldwide. In this scenario, it is of paramount importance to monitor and predict PM concentration. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are commonly used to forecast air pollution levels due to their accuracy. The use of partition on prediction problems is well known because decomposition of time series allows the latent components of the original series to be revealed. It is a matter of extracting the “deterministic” component, which is easy to predict the random components. However, there is no evidence of its use in air pollution forecasting. In this work, we introduce a different approach consisting of the decomposition of the time series in contiguous monthly partitions, aiming to develop specialized predictors to solve the problem because air pollutant concentration has seasonal behavior. The goal is to reach prediction accuracy higher than those obtained by using the entire series. Experiments were performed for seven time series of daily particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5 and PM10–particles with diameter less than 2.5 and 10 micrometers, respectively) in Finland and Brazil, using four ANNs: multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, extreme learning machines, and echo state networks. The experimental results using three evaluation measures showed that the proposed methodology increased all models’ prediction capability, leading to higher accuracy compared to the traditional approach, even for extremely high air pollution events. Our study has an important contribution to air quality prediction studies. It can help governments take measures aiming air pollution reduction and preparing hospitals during extreme air pollution events, which is related to the following United Nations sustainable developments goals: SDG 3—good health and well-being and SDG 11—sustainable cities and communities.
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