The knowledge of the annual cycle of rainfall is of primary concern for many socioeconomic activities such as agricultural planning, electricity generation, and flood and other disaster management. The annual cycle of rainfall in Colombia has been studied so far using monthly or quarterly information, identifying zones with the unimodal regime (one wet season and one dry season) over the Caribbean, the Amazon, and the Pacific regions and zones with the bimodal regime (two wet and two dry seasons) in the Andes. This paper explores the annual rainfall cycle in Colombia on a daily basis using historical records of 1,706 rain gauges and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data precipitation data set. We found four types of annual precipitation regimes: unimodal, bimodal, mixed, and aseasonal. The unimodal regime predominates in the low‐altitude zones of the east and the north, the bimodal and mixed regimes over the Andes mountain range, and the aseasonal in the Pacific region. These results improve the statistical diagnosis of the spatial variability of the rainfall seasonality in Colombia. This phenomenon, however, is still far from being fully understood in its hydroclimatic context. The annual migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is not enough to explain the diversity of rainfall regimes in Colombia. Local factors such as topography and land cover could play an important role in the occurrence and duration of rainfall seasons.

In this study, we validate precipitation estimates remotely sensed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) at monthly and seasonal timescales, during the period 1998-2015, by calculating and analyzing diverse error metrics between the 3B43 V7 product and in situ measurements from 1,180 rain gauges over Colombia, of which at least 987 are fully independent of TRMM. We explore the existence of spatiotemporal patterns to assess the performance of 3B43 V7 over the five major natural regions of Colombia: Caribbean, Pacific, Andes, Orinoco and Amazon. The results show that 3B43 V7 product is able to capture the phase of the annual cycle of monthly mean precipitation, but the performance is not good for the amplitude, in particular over the Andes and Pacific regions owing to complex climatic and topographic conditions. In general, 3B43 V7 exhibits good performance in the low-lying and plain Amazon, Orinoco and Caribbean regions. Over the Andes region, characterized by complex topography, overestimation errors are identified [root mean squared error (RMSE) ≥83.59 mm•month −1 and relative bias (BIAS) ≥4.69%], whereas the extremely wet rainfall regime of the Pacific region is largely underestimated (RMSE ≥253.52 mm •month −1 and BIAS ≤−11.75%). These errors are greater during the wet seasons when the metrics reach worse scores than those reported in similar studies worldwide. Occurrence analyses showed that 3B43 V7 misses very frequent light rainfall events and less frequent but very heavy storms, which contribute to the overall underestimation (overestimation) observed over the Pacific (Andes) region. The error characteristics identified and quantified in this study confirm the well-documented limitations of remote precipitation sensing and constitute a warning about major challenges that complex climatic and physiographic features can impose on satellite rainfall missions.

Prediction of precipitation changes caused by global climate change is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity. To advance, we look at the record of all available rain gauges in Colombia and at the CHIRPS database to estimate trends in essential variables describing precipitation, including HY-INT, an index of the hydrologic cycle’s intensity. Most of the gauges and cells do not show significant trends. Moreover, the signs of the statistically significant trends are opposite between the two datasets. Satisfactory explanation for the discrepancy remains open. Among the CHIRPS database’s statistically significant trends, the western regions (Pacific and Andes) tend to a more intense hydrologic cycle, increasing both intensity and mean dry spell length, whereas for the northern and eastern regions (Caribbean, Orinoco, and Amazon), the tendencies are opposite. This dipole in trends suggests different mechanisms: ENSO affects western Colombia more directly, whereas rainfall in the eastern regions depends more on the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Amazon basin dynamics. Nevertheless, there is countrywide accord among gauges and cells with significant increasing trends for annual precipitation. Overall, these observations constitute essential evidence of the need for developing a more satisfactory theory of climate change effects on tropical precipitation.

Prediction of changes in precipitation in upcoming years and decades caused by global climate change associated with the greenhouse effect, deforestation and other anthropic perturbations is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity and huge consequences. To advance toward this challenge we look at the daily historical record of all available rain gauges in Colombia to estimate an index of the intensity of the hydrologic cycle (Giorgi et al., 2011). The index is the product of precipitation intensity and dry spell length. Theoretical reasons indicate that global warming should lead to increasing trends in either one of the factors or both. Our results indicate that there is no clear picture, there are gauges with positive and negative significant trends, and most of the gauges do not show a significant trend. We present the geographic distribution of results within regions and concerning the elevation in the Andes Cordillera. Results seem to agree with previous reports of total annual precipitation trends.

Prediction of changes in precipitation in upcoming years and decades caused by global climate change associated with the greenhouse effect, deforestation and other anthropic perturbations is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity and huge consequences. To advance toward this challenge we look at the daily historical record of all available rain gauges in Colombia to estimate an index of the intensity of the hydrologic cycle (Giorgi et al., 2011). The index is the product of precipitation intensity and dry spell length. Theoretical reasons indicate that global warming should lead to increasing trends in either one of the factors or both. Our results indicate that there is no clear picture, there are gauges with positive and negative significant trends, and most of the gauges do not show a significant trend. We present the geographic distribution of results within regions and concerning the elevation in the Andes Cordillera. Results seem to agree with previous reports of total annual precipitation trends.