Nowadays there is an increase of attention from the international organizations to resilience of development, suggesting that the concept of sustainability is gradually being replaced by resilience as a development goal. The article explains the need to adapt the theory of regional resilience in Russian researches and determines the prerequisites for the formation that theory. The definitions of the concept of "resilience" from different areas of knowledge, including regional economic and fiscal resilience, are given, and the basic properties and and factors influencing regional resilience are determined. Based on 17 economic, social and financial indicators, an integral resilience index was determined for the Russia's regions, which revealed resilient and non-resilient regions. According to the study, authors have confirmed the relationship between fiscal and socioeconomic resilience.
PurposeThe purpose of the study was to analyze how COVID-19 pandemic affects regional budgets and regional fiscal resilience in Russia.Design/methodology/approachThe research article is structured as follows. Based on the official data from the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Treasure and the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, first, the state of Russian regional budgets before and under COVID-19 is analyzed. Second, due to the increase of regional spending commitments under pandemic the regional debt dependence is reviewed. Third, anticrisis fiscal measures which have been taken to combat the negative impact of COVID-19 are discussed.FindingsIn general, 2020 may be the most difficult for regional budgets, although the results of the first quarter do not show such tension. However, the impact of COVID-19 on budget indicators is ambiguous because the economic crisis of 2020 is dual, including the crisis in the oil markets. The pandemic has become a unique global phenomenon, the effect of which is difficult to identify and interpret outside of the economic aspects of life.Originality/valueThe value of the article is based on the overview of the state of regional budgets before and under COVID-19, on the analysis of how pandemic affects fiscal resilience of the regional budgets and on the forecast of how serious the volume of lost revenues are going to be.
The article examines the impact of various socio-economic and financial indicators on the resilience of Russian regions. For each region, the integral index of resilience is calculated, and its correlation dependence with the selected indicators is revealed. The study confirms the relationship between fiscal resilience and socio-economic resilience of the regions. The analysis of panel data for 75 regions from 2007 to 2016 shows that there are significant differences in the dynamics of indicators in different periods. In particular, the degree of exposure to the negative effects of the crises of 2008—2009 and 2014—2015 in non-resilient regions is higher than in resilient ones.
—The paper considers problems of adequate interpretation of the term resilience in relation to the term sustainable development and offers a consistent holistic system of concepts based on the term shock resistance ( shokoustoichivost’ ), which allows to discuss the problems of sustainable development and resilience (without mixing these terms). The directions for creating a methodology for measuring resilience are proposed, based on a study of theoretical and methodological approaches and existing attempts to measure the resilience of cities and regions. The article describes existing Russian examples of measuring the resilience of regions a posteriori (by analyzing the behavior of indicators of socioeconomic development during and after economic and budgetary crises) and a priori (based on the characteristics of industry structure or risk resistance of the economic, social, and governance subsystems of a region). A paradox is noted: in Russia, subsidization of a region and a backward structure of the economy are factors that increase resilience. Ways are shown to embed mechanisms for increasing resilience in the strategic governance system of urban and regional development. It is proposed to introduce resilience auditing into management practice and create a regional (municipal) risk-management system and the position of a risk manager.
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