No abstract

No abstract

The Ukraine-Russia war continues to threat international trade and global supply chains. This article analyses the impacts of Russia-Ukraine war on Turkey’s exports and imports. For this purpose, we analyzed 4-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Ukraine trade figures between 2016 and 2020 to reveal the prospective most affected sectors from the conflict. Our findings show that Turkey’s agricultural exports both to Russia and Ukraine will be affected negatively by the conflict. The exports of citrus fruits and tomatoes are expected to shrink. Other Turkish exporters which will feel the squeeze are the producers of motor vehicles, petroleum oils and machinery. Turkey may get into trouble in importing various iron and steel products, wrought aluminum, wheat, coal, natural gas, petroleum oils and ammonia from Russia if the sanctions would harm the ability of Russian traders doing business. Importing semi-finished products of iron, wheat, sunflower, maize or corn, various iron and steel products, ferro alloys from Ukraine may be problematic for Turkey as Ukraine takes a significant double-digit share in Turkey’s imports of these goods. It appears global rise in food and energy prices could exacerbate Turkey’s budget deficit and deteriorate already rising domestic inflation, which may in turn hit Turkish traders in the medium term.

The Ukraine-Russia war continues to threaten international trade and global supply chains. This paper aims to compare Ukraine-EU and EU-Turkey trade relations in order to find out whether Turkey’s exports can replace Ukrainian products in the EU market during or after the conflict, and whether this will have also a positive impact on the modernization efforts of the EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) Agreement. For this purpose, we analyzed Turkey-EU and EU-Ukraine trade figures between 2017 and 2021 using TradeMap and UN ComTrade data. To date, there are no major studies concentrated on how Turkish trade relations with the EU may change if Ukraine would not be able to supply to the EU market for a long time due to the war, leaving certain gaps requiring further attention. For our analysis, we firstly checked top 100 export products of Turkey and Ukraine to the EU in 2021. We determined the shares of Turkish and Ukrainian products in EU 27’s imports and took into account of the products whose shares have been more than 1 percent in the EU’s imports from the world. Our findings show that Turkish exports might replace Ukrainian exports targeting EU particularly in five main product groups. We identified that Turkish-origin two iron and steel (Harmonized Tariff Schedules (HTS) 7208, 7209), one agriculture (HTS 0802), and two electrical machinery and equipment (HTS 8544 and 8516) have the advantage in the EU market to gain some of Ukrainian market share, while the competition will be severe with other suppliers like China. According to our analysis, the war could have triggered the pace of the CU agreement renovation works to speed up if the EU would depend more on Turkish goods (especially agricultural, textiles, machinery and selected iron and steel products) to replace Ukrainian products in EU markets while EU would feel the need to turn to Turkish items to meet the domestic demand. Our study reveals that this appears not likely in the current situation.

No abstract