This article analyses the inputs, decisions, outputs and outcomes of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms undertaken by the Lithuanian authorities in the period 2008–2012. Our research was based on desk research, which was supplemented by interviews with government decision-makers. The article found that Lithuania successfully pursued fiscal consolidation, which contributed to stabilising its economy and public finances. If economic factors largely explain the timing of fiscal consolidation decisions, political factors are more powerful in accounting for the expenditure-led nature of fiscal consolidation in Lithuania. However, despite bold and ambitious plans, Lithuania's structural reforms proved to be fragmented and incremental due to the absence of a stable base of political support, sustained political attention and persistent political leadership. Points for practitioners First, Lithuania's experience shows the importance of previous policies and the constraints that they impose throughout crises when the speed of decision-making is crucial. Second, it illustrates that an external shock and a reform programme are not sufficient conditions for successful implementation – coalition politics and institutional resistance can derail some initial plans. Third, it demonstrates that even countries that successfully executed a large-scale fiscal consolidation programme may fail to seize the ‘windows of opportunity’ offered by the financial crisis to implement long-term structural reforms.
We investigate retrospective voting in the Central–Eastern European countries since the democratic transition. We find that the phenomenon of ‘hyper-accountability’ identified by earlier scholarship is still prevalent in the region – incumbents lose substantially on average. Economic conditions – unemployment and wealth – exert influence on the chances of incumbent re-election. However, contrary to expectations expressed in earlier scholarship, the influence of the economy on the election results does not strengthen over time. We also explore additional facets of retrospective voting and find that changes in socio-economic inequality are correlated with the vote share of incumbents. Finally, we also find evidence of an interaction between economic conditions and corruption as well as inequality when it comes to explaining incumbents’ electoral results.
This article compares the experience of the Baltic countries and the eurozone's southern members, the GIPS (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain), in terms of the run-up to the Great Recession and the eurozone crisis, responses during the downturn, and the subsequent recovery (or lack thereof). It discusses numerous apparent similarities in terms of the build-up of macroeconomic vulnerabilities and the content of anti-crisis strategies pursued as well as the substantially different results of these policies. This article applies the VoC (Varieties of Capitalism) approach. To this end, it presents theoretical expectations regarding different varieties' vulnerability to macroeconomic imbalances, preferences regarding anti-crisis policy as well as the likely outcome of the internal devaluation strategy. The article fi nds the VoC approach largely useful, although it is more helpful in accounting for the nature of reaction to the crisis and the outcomes of anti-crisis policy, while less so in explaining the initial accumulation of vulnerabilities.
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