Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

Objective To assess the cost effectiveness of routine vaccination of 12 year old schoolgirls against human papillomavirus infection in the United Kingdom.Design Economic evaluation.Setting UK.Population Schoolgirls aged 12 or older.Main outcome measures Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios for a range of vaccination options.Results Vaccinating 12 year old schoolgirls with a quadrivalent vaccine at 80% coverage is likely to be cost effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £30 000 (€37 700; $59 163) per QALY gained, if the average duration of protection from the vaccine is more than 10 years. Implementing a catch-up campaign of girls up to age 18 is likely to be cost effective. Vaccination of boys is unlikely to be cost effective. A bivalent vaccine with the same efficacy against human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 costing £13-£21 less per dose (depending on the duration of vaccine protection) may be as cost effective as the quadrivalent vaccine although less effective as it does not prevent anogenital warts.Conclusions Routine vaccination of 12 year old schoolgirls combined with an initial catch-up campaign up to age 18 is likely to be cost effective in the UK. The results are robust to uncertainty in many parameters and processes. A key influential variable is the duration of vaccine protection.

SUMMARYA 10-month longitudinal household study of pre-school children and their families was undertaken with monthly visits collecting epidemiological data and nasopharyngeal swabs in Hertfordshire, England from 2001 to 2002. Pneumococcal culture was with standard methods. In total, 121 families (489 individuals) took part. Mean prevalence of carriage ranged from 52 % for age groups 0-2 years, 45 % for 3-4 years, 21 % for 5-17 years and 8 % for o18 years. Carriage occurred more than once in 86 % of children aged 0-2 years compared to 36 % of those aged o18 years. The most prevalent serotypes in the 0-2 years age group were 6B followed by 19F, 23F, 6A and 14. Young children were responsible for the majority of introductions of new serotypes into a household. Erythromycin resistance (alone or in combination) occurred in 10% of samples and penicillin non-susceptibility in 3 . 7%. Overall the recently licensed 7-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV) would protect against 64 % of serotypes with no intra-serogroup cross protection and 82% with such protection. Nasopharyngeal carriage of S. pneumoniae is common in a UK setting in the pre-conjugate vaccine era. PCV would protect against a large proportion of carriage isolates. However, the impact of vaccination on non-vaccine serotypes will need to be monitored.

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Much interest has surrounded the use of conjugate vaccines in recent years, with the development of vaccines against disease caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. These vaccines offer the potential for safe and effective disease control, but some questions remain, particularly regarding the duration and mechanisms of protection and the longer-term impact of vaccination on carriage. In this paper, the authors use data on immunization with serogroup C meningococcal conjugate vaccines in England and Wales to develop and apply a mathematical model to investigate the direct and indirect (herd immunity) effects of a conjugate vaccine program. A realistic, age-structured, dynamic model was developed and parameterized and was fitted to epidemiologic data from England and Wales. The effects of a range of vaccine strategies, including hypothetical scenarios, were investigated. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 1.36. Catch-up vaccination targeting teenagers generated substantial herd immunity and was important in controlling disease rapidly. The results were sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding the method of vaccine action, particularly duration of protection and efficacy of vaccination against carriage acquisition. This model can be used to help predict the potential impact of vaccine strategies both in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.