The need to search for new measures describing the classification of a logistic regression model stems from the difficulty in searching for previously unknown factors that predict the occurrence of a disease. A classification quality assessment can be performed by testing the change in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Another approach is to use the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI), which is based on a comparison between the predicted risk, determined on the basis of the basic model, and the predicted risk that comes from the model enriched with an additional factor. In this paper, we draw attention to Cohen’s Kappa coefficient, which examines the actual agreement in the correction of a random agreement. We proposed to extend this coefficient so that it may be used to detect the quality of a logistic regression model reclassification. The results provided by Kappa‘s reclassification were compared with the results obtained using NRI. The random variables’ distribution attached to the model on the classification change, measured by NRI, Kappa, and AUC, was presented. A simulation study was conducted on the basis of a cohort containing 3971 Poles obtained during the implementation of a lower limb atherosclerosis prevention program.

Excess mortality of men has been observed since the beginning of the 20th century. One of the main causes of this phenomenon is malignant cancers, with lung cancer as the main reason. At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, a decline in male excess mortality was observed in most developed countries. This study aimed to analyze the changes in the level of excess mortality of men caused by lung cancer between 2002 and 2017 in the countries associated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In order to compare changes in male mortality rates across countries, the annual average percent change (AAPC) in male excess mortality rate for a given country was calculated. A decrease in excess male mortality due to lung cancer between 2002 and 2017 was recorded in 33 of the 35 countries analyzed. The highest rate of decline was observed in Spain (4.9% per year), Belgium (4.7% per year), Slovakia (4.4% per year) and other European OECD member countries. In most OECD countries, the decrease in excess male mortality was the result of a decrease in mortality in the male population as well as the increase in female mortality. In 10 member countries of the OECD, there was a simultaneous increase in the mortality of men and women, though the increase was higher in the female population. Only in two countries was the decrease in excess mortality of males due to a greater decline in the mortality of men. The decline in male mortality from lung cancer primarily associated with a reduction in tobacco consumption in this population initiated in the 1980s or 1990s (depending on the country) was not observed in the female population.

Objectives: At the end of the 20th century, after years of negligence in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases, Poland was struggling with very high premature mortality. The period of 1991-2005 brought significant improvements since the general public introduced beneficial dietary modifications. This paper aims to analyze the changes in the rate of premature mortality due to tobacco-dependent cardiovascular diseases in Poland in 2008-2017. Material and Methods: The time trends of deaths occurring under the age of 65 years caused by ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, atherosclerosis and aortic aneurysm were analyzed. Both standardized and crude premature mortality rates were used, as well as mortality rates for patients grouped into 5-year age ranges with a breakdown by gender. The joinpoint model was used to determine these time trends. Results: Premature mortality due to the analyzed cardiovascular diseases decreased linearly in 2008-2017. In the case of ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases, the decrease amounted to approx. 5% per year, both in the female and male population. However, in the case of atherosclerosis and aortic aneurysms, the rate of mortality reduction ranged 4-7% per year. The reduction concerned all the examined age groups, but with different dynamics. The most considerable annual decrease was observed in the group of patients aged 40-44 years (7.9% for females and 8.9% for males). Along with the increase in age, the dynamics of reduction decreased. Conclusions: In 2008-2017, Poland experienced a decline in premature mortality due to tobacco-related cardiovascular diseases, particularly in the age group of 40-44 years. The decline may have been associated, among other things, with a reduction in exposure to tobacco smoke, one of the cardiovascular risk factors. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2022;35(1)

Introduction: Generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) is one of the most common mental disorders. The psychosocial factors that may lead to generalised anxiety disorders include stress, traumatic events, conscious and unconscious internal conflicts, and low social and economic status. Imprisonment and forced isolation may favour the development of depression or anxiety disorders in inmates. Thus, this study aimed to analyse the prevalence of generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) in the population of inmates detained in one of the largest penitentiary units in north-eastern Poland.Materials and Methods: The data comes from 2017 and includes information on 635 male inmates incarcerated at the Czerwony Bór Prison. The information comes from the health records of individual inmates, kept by the prison outpatient clinician, and documented consultations with doctors of units outside the prison. The classification of generalised anxiety disorders (F41.1) was made in accordance with the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health Problems and the clinical diagnosis made by a psychiatrist. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare quantitative data without normal distribution, chi-squared test or Fisher exact test for comparing qualitative data. A one-dimensional and multi-dimensional logistic regression model was used to examine the impact of the prison type on the prevalence of generalised anxiety disorder.Results: Generalised anxiety disorder was observed among 44 prisoners (6.9%), most often in the age range 30–39 years and among men younger than 30 years, respectively 40.9 and 31.8% of all diagnosed. The average age of patients was 34.6 years. The least number of prisoners with GAD was in the age group 50–59 (2.3%). Nearly 66% of patients were prisoners detained in a closed type prison; the chance of generalised anxiety disorder was three times higher than among the prisoners in a half-open and open type facility. Generalised anxiety disorder was diagnosed significantly more often with those currently serving a prison sentence than those before incarceration.Conclusions: In Polish conditions, the importance of the problem associated with GAD is evidenced by a significant increase in its prevalence in the prison environment and a three times higher chance of developing generalised anxiety disorder among prisoners in a closed type institution, which calls for highly organised psychiatric care and increased availability of psychological assistance for prisoners.

Introduction: The World Health Assembly adopted the Global Health Strategy and aims to reduce the incidence of Hepatitis from up to 10 million cases per year to 0.9 million cases and to reduce deaths from 1.4 million to 0.5 million per year by 2030. However, given the prevalence of chronic Hepatitis B in many countries and the incidence of new cases of acute Hepatitis B, the task is not easy. This study investigates the trends and determinants of the incidence of acute Hepatitis B in Poland in 2005–2019. Materials and Methods: Data on the incidence of acute hepatitis B (AHBV) were obtained from the National Institute of Public Health. A case definition for AHBV was consistent with the EU definition. The incidence trends were determined by considering the sex, age and place of residence. Due to the exponential dependence model, the computations were based on the logarithm of the incidence rate. This allowed for the transformation to linear form and analysis could be conducted using linear models. Pearson’s correlation was used to determine the linear trend of incidence in general and according to sex and place of residence. The values of incidence rates (independent proportions test) and the coefficients illustrating the trends under study were also compared among males and females as well as urban and rural residents. Results: The incidence of AHBV in the Polish population decreased with similar slopes in both sexes. The newly reported cases of AHBV were more frequent in the male population. The incidence of acute Hepatitis B in the urban population was significantly higher than in the rural population. The significant decreasing trends in incidence were observed in all age ranges, with the exception of two age ranges 0–4 and 10–14, where the total incidence during the whole study period was negligible. Conclusion: Despite the significant decrease in the incidence of AHBV in Poland and its position among the European countries with the lowest hepatitis B (HBV) incidence, the alarmingly high proportion of iatrogenic infections requires further improvement in the sanitary condition of health care facilities. It is also necessary to decrease the number of unvaccinated individuals.