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THIS PAPER DESCRIBES A METHOD FOR INCORPORATING EXOGENOUS PRICE CHANGES INTO INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND THEREBY ESTIMATING THEIR IMPACT ON A REGIONAL ECONOMY. THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS DEMONSTRATE THAT WHEN THE PRICES OF WHEAT, ELECTRICITY, PETROLEUM, AND NATURAL GAS ARE INCREASED BY EXOGENOUS FORCES, THEIR EFFECTS ON WASHINGTON STATE'S ECONOMY ARE SIGNIFICANT AND DIVERSE. THE METHOD CAN BE MODIFIED TO ENABLE ITS USE FOR FORECASTING ENDOGENOUS PRICE CHANGES, UNDER CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS.

Discontiguous urban growth is explained more by landowner characteristics than by parcel characteristics. Discriminant analysis ofthe sell/hold decisions of owners of undeveloped parcels demonstrated the greater importance of landowner characteristics in determining urban fringe sales. Sales, in turn, exhibit a high degree of association with development in the near term. These results suggest that discontiguous patterns of urban growth arise largely from the scattered availability of sites owned by persons with reservation prices below market value. Institutional constraints on development that rely on rent changes induced by subsidies and penalties will be ineffective.

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