In recent centuries, water consumption rates have more than doubled and the population growth rate is rising constantly. As a result, water scarcity is now one of the main problems to be faced, mainly in semiarid regions. In light of such a dilemma, this study aims to develop a system dynamics model in order to evaluate the water system in the semiarid region of the state of Paraíba—located in the Brazilian Northeast—and it focus on the following two issues: (1) measures that could have been taken with respect to the recent water crisis (2012–2017); (2) simulating water availability up to 2025. It was observed that, despite the options of in-demand management tools being efficient solutions for water scarcity in the short term (e.g., the influence of scarcity-based tariffs in reducing water use), such tools would not suffice in a context of severe drought within a water-providing system that depends heavily on rainfall. However, certain policies involving water-supply management (e.g., wastewater reuse and inter-basin water transfer) are very effective in maintaining water supply and avoiding a water collapse in the region. Furthermore, employing the Monte Carlo approach in simulating the system dynamic proved that the water supply is sensitive to scarcity-based tariffs, wastewater reuse, and inter-basin water transfer. An important advancement in this study was the simulation of a methodology for pricing that encourages rational use of water-based on its scarcity, which in turn increases revenue and investment in other water-management strategies.

RESMUMOEste artigo é um estudo descritivo, exploratório, de abordagem quanti e qualitativa, realizado no Polo de Confecções do Agreste de Pernambuco, com objetivo de verificar a sua importância socioeconomica para esta região. Os dados foram coletados por meio de uma análise documental, bibliográfica e acesso nos sites do DIEESE e SEBRAE-PE. Dessa forma, podese concluir que o Polo de Confecções tem um papel de extrema importância no aspecto socioeconomico da região, gerando milhares de empregos e renda. Além disso, é composto basicamente por micro e pequenas empresas, o que tem produzido ou ajudado a produzir, uma distribuição de renda mais eqüitativa (ou menos desigual) na região.Palavras chaves: Indústria de confecções, estudo socioeconômico, estudo descritivo e exploratório ABSTRACT This article is a descriptive, exploratory, quantitative and qualitative study, performed on denominated "Polo de Confecções do Agreste de Pernambuco", with the objective of verify its socioeconomic importance for this region. Data were collected through a documentary analysis, bibliographic and access to the DIEESE and SEBRAE-PE sites. In this way, it can be concluded that clothing Pole has a role of extreme importance in the socioeconomic aspect of the region, generating thousands of jobs and income. In addition, it is basically composed of micro and small enterprises, which has produced or helped to produce, a more equitable (or less uneven) income distribution in the region.

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