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Long term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al. (2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season's end.

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio (TER(lt)). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs) to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TER(lt )assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Terrestrial risk assessments for pesticide exposure is generally based on a limited number of toxicity data. The protection target for these assessments requires an extrapolation from species for which toxicity data are available to other species with unknown sensitivity to be able to protect these as well. Our ability to extrapolate toxicity endpoints between species is a major source of uncertainty in risk assessment. Most analyses of interspecies extrapolation in avian risk assessments have dealt with acute toxicity data. It was suggested that, in the absence of a strong rationale to the contrary, we should assume that reproductive data is at least as variable as acute data and that strategies developed for acute data could be applied to long term toxicity data as well. Considering only the two main bird test species for which reproduction data are available (Mallard and Northern Bobwhite), a comparison of the interspecies standard deviation for both acute and reproduction data suggests that the two are equally variable. Analysis of a very limited data set also suggests that this conclusion holds regardless of which endpoint is triggered in the reproduction study. However, the relative sensitivity of the two species established from acute test data appears to be reversed in the case of reproductive data. In addition there seems to be no reason to believe that bodyweight is a factor in helping birds cope with the rigors of chronic dosing, which is in contrast with the acute dosing situation. This suggests that the best extrapolation technique for reproduction test data should be independent of phylogeny and independent of bodyweight scaling. The simplest such method is the one that was proposed by Luttik and Aldenberg (1995, 1997) for both birds and mammals.

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