Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.

It is one thing to have a discussion or write about a one-or two-foot rise in the ocean surface and potential impacts to a local community; it is another to show someone a map highlighting the areas that would potentially be impacted. The ability to visualize the potential depth and inland extent of water gives us a better understanding of the corresponding impacts and consequences. Mapping sea level changes in a geographic information system (GIS) gives the user the ability to overlay the potentially impacted areas with other data such as critical infrastructure, roads, ecologically sensitive areas, demographics, and economics. Providing maps on the Web via Internet mapping technologies enables the user to have an interactive experience that truly brings out the "visual" part of the map definition. Over the past several years, the lessons learned from investigating pilot sea level change mapping applications have led to the development of a next-generation sea level rise and coastal flooding viewer. In addition, new mapping techniques have been developed to use high-resolution data sources to show flooding impacts on local public infrastructure, mapping confidence, flooding frequency, marsh impacts, and social and economic impacts from potential inundation. This paper will provide a brief history of previous sea level change visualization pilot projects, detailed discussion of new methods, current status of new tool development and outputs, and future plans for expanding to the rest of the U.S.

Flood risk is influenced by the rate and speed of rural land runoff within the catchment and by flow attenuation in the floodplain. Most research to date has demonstrated that the overall flood risk benefits of multiple small scale land management changes at a large catchment scale are difficult to determine and, in some situations, may not provide significant benefits in flood events. Measures may, however, offer potential for attenuation, improving flood warning times and therefore reducing flood damages. Climate change and major legislative drivers such as the Water Framework Directive will also further drive the need to consider different approaches to how land is managed and the impact that this may have on flood and coastal risk management.

Coastal wetlands are not only among the world’s most valued ecosystems but also among the most threatened by high greenhouse gas emissions that lead to accelerated sea level rise. There is intense debate regarding the extent to which landward migration of wetlands might compensate for seaward wetland losses. By integrating data from 166 estuaries across the conterminous United States, we show that landward migration of coastal wetlands will transform coastlines but not counter seaward losses. Two-thirds of potential migration is expected to occur at the expense of coastal freshwater wetlands, while the remaining one-third is expected to occur at the expense of valuable uplands, including croplands, forests, pastures, and grasslands. Our analyses underscore the need to better prepare for coastal transformations and net wetland loss due to rising seas.