Recent increases in global temperatures have contributed to advancing phenology of plants and animals. These increases in temperature have been shown to affect the phenological phases (phenophases) of plants and birds in Ireland, but less is known about the effect on the phenophases of Irish insects. Records of the flight periods of 59 species of Irish moths over the past 35 years (1974–2009) were obtained from a public monitoring group. Observations were analysed across the country using generalized additive models (GAMs) weighted by total yearly population numbers for each species. The results of the statistical analyses showed that 45 of the 59 species studied have a significantly earlier first sighting date now than when observations began. With this earlier emergence, 44 of the 59 species also have a significantly longer flight season over the same 35‐year period. The extent of these changes varies across the country and by species life history. In particular, species emerging in spring are advancing at a much faster rate than species emerging during the summer. Many of these changes in first sighting are negatively correlated with rising temperatures in Ireland, particularly in late spring and early summer (May and June). The variation in phenological advancement in the moth species of Ireland is extremely complex and may be influenced more by species life history than by the phenology of interacting species, such as host plants.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

Financial decision-making is not straightforward, in part, because such decisions generally involve comparing financial assets the payoffs from which are subject to risk and uncertainty. Given that situation, two questions naturally arise: How do economic agents go about the business of making choices in the face of risk and uncertainty? And, how should economic agents make choices in the face of risk and uncertainty? This paper concentrates on the first of these questions and discusses some of the main attempts made by economic theory to understand how economic agents go about the business decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Theoretical possibilities considered in the context of decisions under conditions of risk include: Expected value maximization, Expected utility maximization, Rank dependent utility maximization, Prospect theory, and the Topology of fear approach to decision-making in the face of catastrophic risk. This paper also considers empirical tests of these theoretical possibilities and some of the anomalies and responses thrown up by those tests such as: Allais Paradox, Discovered Preference Hypothesis, and the choice behaviour of CEOs when faced with risk. The paper concludes with a brief excursion into choice under uncertainty where, unlike in risky choice situation, the existence of objective probabilities over states of the world cannot be relied on. In that context, the author briefly canvases the Subjective Expected Utility approach — which is unable in general to account for ambiguity aversion — Choquet utility, Wald's Multiple Priors, and the Case Based approach This paper highlights the fact that the rich and fascinating field of decision-making under risk and uncertainty is characterized by a constant interplay between theoretical conjecture, empirical testing, and theoretical refinement. Such interplay is mirrored by this paper and contributions in the Colloquium Section of this Issue, where the thoughts of practitioners and academics interact.