The ErbB signaling pathways, which regulate diverse physiological responses such as cell survival, proliferation and motility, have been subjected to extensive molecular analysis. Nonetheless, it remains poorly understood how different ligands induce different responses and how this is affected by oncogenic mutations. To quantify signal flow through ErbB-activated pathways we have constructed, trained and analyzed a mass action model of immediate-early signaling involving ErbB1-4 receptors (EGFR, HER2/Neu2, ErbB3 and ErbB4), and the MAPK and PI3K/Akt cascades. We find that parameter sensitivity is strongly dependent on the feature (e.g. ERK or Akt activation) or condition (e.g. EGF or heregulin stimulation) under examination and that this context dependence is informative with respect to mechanisms of signal propagation. Modeling predicts log-linear amplification so that significant ERK and Akt activation is observed at ligand concentrations far below the K d for receptor binding. However, MAPK and Akt modules isolated from the ErbB model continue to exhibit switch-like responses. Thus, key system-wide features of ErbB signaling arise from nonlinear interaction among signaling elements, the properties of which appear quite different in context and in isolation.

A Bayesian framework is used to calibrate a mass-action model of receptor-mediated apoptosis. Despite parameter non-identifiability and model ‘sloppiness', Bayes factor analysis discriminates between two alternative models of mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization.

Stochastic fluctuations in gene expression give rise to cell-to-cell variability in protein levels which can potentially cause variability in cellular phenotype. For TRAIL (TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand) variability manifests itself as dramatic differences in the time between ligand exposure and the sudden activation of the effector caspases that kill cells. However, the contribution of individual proteins to phenotypic variability has not been explored in detail. In this paper we use feature-based sensitivity analysis as a means to estimate the impact of variation in key apoptosis regulators on variability in the dynamics of cell death. We use Monte Carlo sampling from measured protein concentration distributions in combination with a previously validated ordinary differential equation model of apoptosis to simulate the dynamics of receptor-mediated apoptosis. We find that variation in the concentrations of some proteins matters much more than variation in others and that precisely which proteins matter depends both on the concentrations of other proteins and on whether correlations in protein levels are taken into account. A prediction from simulation that we confirm experimentally is that variability in fate is sensitive to even small increases in the levels of Bcl-2. We also show that sensitivity to Bcl-2 levels is itself sensitive to the levels of interacting proteins. The contextual dependency is implicit in the mathematical formulation of sensitivity, but our data show that it is also important for biologically relevant parameter values. Our work provides a conceptual and practical means to study and understand the impact of cell-to-cell variability in protein expression levels on cell fate using deterministic models and sampling from parameter distributions.