Agricultural intensification is one of the main drivers of farmland bird declines, but effects on birds may be confounded with those of climate change. Here we examine the effects of intensification and climate change on a grassland breeding wader, the Blacktailed Godwit Limosa l. limosa, in the Netherlands. Population decline has been linked to poor chick survival which, in turn, has been linked to available foraging habitat. Foraging habitat of the nidifugous chicks consists of uncut grasslands that provide cover and arthropod prey. Conservation measures such as agri-environment schemes aim to increase the availability of chick foraging habitat but have not yet been successful in halting the decline. Field observations show that since the early 1980s, farmers advanced their first seasonal mowing or grazing date by 15 days, whereas Godwits did not advance their hatching date. Ringing data indicate that between 1945 and 1975 hatching dates advanced by about 2 weeks in parallel with the advancement of median mowing dates. Surprisingly, temperature sums at median mowing and hatching dates suggest that while the agricultural advancement before 1980 was largely due to agricultural intensification, after 1980 it was largely due to climate change. Examining arthropod abundance in a range of differently managed grasslands revealed that chick food abundance was little affected but that food accessibility in intensively used tall swards may be problematic for chicks. Our results suggest that, compared with 25 years ago, nowadays (1) a much higher proportion of clutches and chicks are exposed to agricultural activities, (2) there is little foraging habitat left when chicks hatch and (3) because of climate change, the vegetation in the remaining foraging habitat is taller and denser and therefore of lower quality. This indicates that for agri-environment schemes to make a difference, they should not only be implemented in a larger percentage of the breeding area than the current maxima of 20-30% but they should also include measures that create more open, accessible swards.

Farmland bird populations in the Netherlands have shown an accelerating decline in recent years, despite extensive conservation efforts including reserves, agri-environment schemes and protection of nests by volunteers. Although agricultural intensification is the main cause underlying these declines, there is a growing concern that the ongoing decline of grasslandbreeding shorebirds in recent years is caused or aggravated by increasing predation. Although Red Fox Vulpes vulpes and Carrion Crow Corvus corone are often accused of causing widespread breeding losses, and calls for management of these species are made, very few field data are available on the incidence of predation on grassland shorebirds and the relative importance of different predators. To obtain such data, we identified egg predators using temperature loggers and continuous video recordings of 792 clutches, and chick predators by radiotagging 662 chicks of Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa and Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus . In total, 22 species were identified as predators of eggs or chicks, of which Red Fox, Common Buzzard Buteo buteo , Grey Heron Ardea cinerea and Stoat Mustela erminea were the most frequent. Eggs were taken primarily by mammals and chicks more often by birds. There was great variation in predation levels and species involved in predation of clutches between sites and years, but less in chick predation. Hence, there was no correlation between predation levels on clutches and those on chicks within the same sites. In sites where more then 50% of clutches were lost to predation, however, nocturnal predators took the larger share. As temporal and spatial variation on a small scale significantly influences predation levels, a site-specific approach based on sound knowledge of the local situation will be more effective in reducing predation on farmland birds than general, country-wide measures. Calculations based on our data indicate that eliminating only one loss factor at a time will often not reverse a local population decline, and provide a strong argument for targeting several locally limiting factors simultaneously instead of focusing on mitigation of predation alone.

Grassland-breeding shorebirds show widespread declines due to a reduction in breeding productivity following agricultural intensification. However, there is also concern that increasing predation causes further declines or precludes population recovery. Predation may itself be enhanced by agriculture through changes in habitat or food availability, but little is known about the mortality of nidifugous shorebird chicks. We studied mortality by radio-tagging 662 chicks of Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa and Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus in 15 farmland sites in the Netherlands. Tagging and handling had no effect on the condition and survival of godwit chicks, but body condition was reduced by 6-11% in lapwing chicks wearing a tag for longer than 3 days. Fledging success was 0-24% in both species. Mortality was highest in young chicks but remained considerable until after fledging. Losses were traced mostly to predators (70-85%; 15 species, predominantly birds), but at least 5-10% were due to mowing, and 10-20% were due to other causes, including entrapment in ditches and starvation. Chicks staying in fields that were cut before the next radio check were found much more often as mowing victims and somewhat more often as prey remains than chicks in fields not cut, indicating that predation includes a limited amount of scavenging. The predation hazard for godwit chicks was higher in recently cut or grazed fields than in the tall, uncut grasslands they preferred, while that for lapwing chicks was lowest in grazed fields. In godwit chicks, poor body condition increased mortality risk, not only from starvation but also from other causes. Predation on godwit chicks was thus enhanced by intensive farming through a decline in the availability of cover, augmented by a reduced body condition, possibly due to food availability problems. Changes in farming practice may therefore help reduce predation pressure, though the observed interactions explained only part of the high predation rate in godwits and none in lapwings. Predator abundance has increased in Dutch wet grassland regions, and chick predation has become a factor that should be considered in planning the type and location of conservation measures.

Summary 1.Like many farmland birds, the largest European population of the black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa , in The Netherlands, has been declining for decades despite conservation measures including agri-environment schemes (AES). In a new experimental AES aiming to reverse this decline, collectives of farmers implemented spatially coordinated site-level habitat management ('mosaic management') including delayed and staggered mowing of fields, refuge strips and active nest protection. 2. We evaluated the effectiveness of mosaic management by measuring godwit breeding success in six experimental sites and paired controls. Productivity was higher in mosaics than in controls due to fewer agricultural nest losses. Chick fledging success was poor in both treatments. Productivity compensated for adult mortality in only one AES site. 3. Although creating chick habitat was a major management goal, the availability of tall grass during the fledging period did not differ between treatments, mainly because rainfall delayed mowing in all sites and study years. However, chick survival increased with the availability of tall grass among sites. Higher chick survival will thus enhance the positive effect of mosaic management in drier years, but sensitivity to weather represents a weakness of the AES design. 4. Available estimates of productivity in Dutch godwits suggest a strong reduction over the past 20 years and implicate chick survival as the main driver of their decline. Earlier mowing of grassland is the main causal mechanism, but changes in vegetation structure and composition, and increased predation may also have contributed. 5. Synthesis and applications. Demographic rates like breeding success are useful parameters for evaluating effects of management. Mosaic management increases the productivity of black-tailed godwits, but does not ensure long-term population viability for this flagship species of wet grassland bird communities. More stringent management prescriptions need to improve both the area and the quality (vegetation structure) of grassland mown late. Management efforts should be concentrated in areas with favourable pre-conditions in order to improve overall effectiveness.

Farmland birds are among the most threatened bird species in Europe, largely as a result of agricultural intensification which has driven widespread biodiversity losses. Breeding waders associated with grassland and arable habitats are particularly vulnerable and a frequent focus of agri‐environment schemes (AES) designed to halt and reverse population declines. We review existing literature, providing a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of policy and management interventions used throughout Europe to improve population and demographic metrics of grassland‐breeding waders. Targeted AES and site protection measures were more likely to be effective than less targeted AES and were ten times more likely to be effective than would be expected by chance, particularly for population trend and productivity metrics. Positive effects of AES and site protection did not appear synergistic. Management interventions which had the greatest chance of increasing population growth or productivity included modification of mowing regimes, increasing wet conditions, and the use of nest protection. Success rates varied according to the species and metric being evaluated. None of the policy or management interventions we evaluated were associated with a significant risk of negative impacts on breeding waders. Our findings support the use of agri‐environment schemes, site protection, and management measures for grassland‐breeding wader conservation in Europe. Due to publication bias, our findings are most applicable to intensively managed agricultural landscapes. More studies are needed to identify measures that increase chick survival. Despite broadly effective conservation measures already in use, grassland‐breeding waders in Europe continue to decline. More research is needed to improve the likelihood and magnitude of positive outcomes, coupled with wider implementation of effective measures to substantially increase favorable land management for these species.