African swine fever (ASf) is a severe viral disease that is currently spreading among domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in large areas of eurasia. Wild boar play a key role in the spread of ASf, yet despite their significance, little is known about the key mechanisms that drive infection transmission and disease persistence. A mathematical model of the wild boar ASf system is developed that captures the observed drop in population density, the peak in infected density and the persistence of the virus observed in ASf outbreaks. the model results provide insight into the key processes that drive the ASf dynamics and show that environmental transmission is a key mechanism determining the severity of an infectious outbreak and that direct frequency dependent transmission and transmission from individuals that survive initial ASf infection but eventually succumb to the disease are key for the longterm persistence of the virus. By considering scenarios representative of estonia and Spain we show that faster degradation of carcasses in Spain, due to elevated temperature and abundant obligate scavengers, may reduce the severity of the infectious outbreak. our results also suggest that the higher underlying host density and longer breeding season associated with supplementary feeding leads to a more pronounced epidemic outbreak and persistence of the disease in the long-term. the model is used to assess disease control measures and suggests that a combination of culling and infected carcass removal is the most effective method to eradicate the virus without also eradicating the host population, and that early implementation of these control measures will reduce infection levels whilst maintaining a higher host population density and in some situations prevent ASf from establishing in a population. African swine fever (ASF) virus, belonging to the Asfarviridae family, is a virulent virus affecting domestic pigs, wild boar (Sus scrofa) and African wild suids. Infection from highly virulent strains leads to near 100% mortality at the individual level 1-4 , and outbreaks typically lead to significant population loss 5. ASF has a large economic impact in affected countries due to losses in pig production and food security threats and is listed as a notifiable disease by the World Organisation for Animal Health 4,6. Gaining a clear understanding of the infection and transmission dynamics and developing strategies to control ASF outbreaks is a key, current priority 7. African swine fever is endemic in wild suids and domestic pigs in sub-Saharan Africa. The virus first emerged in Europe in 1957 in Portugal, spreading subsequently to Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Malta. The epidemic was eradicated in mainland Europe and Malta in 1999 through control of infected and at-risk domestic pig populations and by imposing strict bio-security measures 8. However, the infection still persists on Sardinia 9,10. A second epidemic started in Georgia in 2007. In the same year, ASF was reported in wild boar in the Russ...

A mathematical model is developed and analysed to examine the impacts of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into a wild boar population that supports endemic animal tuberculosis (TB). TB is a widespread infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacteria belonging to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) that can persist in reservoir wildlife hosts. Wild boar (sus scrofa) are a key reservoir for MTC, and an increasing trend in wild boar density is expected to lead to an increase in TB prevalence with spill‐over to livestock. MTC infection is presently controlled through a variety of strategies, including culling. African swine fever (ASF) is a virulent, viral infection which affects wild boar and is spreading across Eurasia and Oceania. ASF infection leads to near 100% mortality at the individual level, can cause a dramatic decrease in population density and may therefore lead to TB control. We extend an established model that captures the key demographic and infection processes for TB in wild boar to consider the impact of ASF introduction on wild boar populations that support different levels of endemic TB. Our model results indicate that an ASF infection will reduce wild boar population density and lead to a decrease in the prevalence of TB. If ASF persists in the local host population the model predicts the long‐term decline of TB prevalence in wild boar. If ASF is eradicated, or fades‐out in the local host population, the model predicts a slower recovery of TB prevalence in comparison to wild boar density after an ASF epidemic. This may open a window of opportunity to apply TB management to maintain low TB prevalence.

Tick-borne diseases are an increasing global public health concern due to an expanding geographical range and increase in abundance of tick-borne infectious agents. A potential explanation for the rising impact of tick-borne diseases is an increase in tick abundance which may be linked to an increase in density of the hosts on which they feed. In this study, we develop a model framework to understand the link between host density, tick demography and tick-borne pathogen epidemiology. Our model links the development of specific tick stages to the specific hosts on which they feed. We show that host community composition and host density have an impact on tick population dynamics and that this has a consequent impact on host and tick epidemiological dynamics. A key result is that our model framework can exhibit variation in host infection prevalence for a fixed density of one host type due to changes in density of other host types that support different tick life stages. Our findings suggest that host community composition may play a crucial role in explaining the variation in prevalence of tick-borne infections in hosts observed in the field.