In mainland China, a geographic northward expansion of scrub typhus has been seen, highlighting the need to understand the factors and identify the risk for disease prevention. Incidence data from 1980 to 2013 were used. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify drivers for spatial spread, and a boosted regression tree (BRT) model was constructed to predict potential risk areas. Since the 1980s, an invasive expansion from South Natural Foci towards North Natural Foci was clearly identified, with the epidemiological heterogeneity observed between two regions, mainly in spatial distribution, seasonality, and demographic characteristics. Survival analysis disclosed significant factors contributing to the spatial expansion as following: being intersected by freeway (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.11–1.54), coverage percentage of broadleaf forest (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06–1.15), and monthly average temperature (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.25–1.30). The BRT models showed that precipitation, sunshine hour, temperature, crop field, and relative humidity contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of scrub typhus. A county-scale risk map was created to predict the regions with high probability of the disease. The current study enabled a comprehensive overview of epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in mainland China.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is caused by a novel bunyavirus SFTSV. Currently our knowledge of the host-related factors that influence the pathogenesis of disease is inadequate to allow prediction of fatal outcome. Here we conducted a prospective study of the largest database on the SFTS patients, to identify the presence of comorbidities in SFTS, and estimate their effect on the fatal outcome. Among 2096 patients eligible for inclusion, we identified nine kinds of comorbidities, from which hyperlipidemia (12.2%; 95% CI: 10.8%–13.6%), hypertension (11.0%; 95% CI: 9.6%–12.3%), chronic viral hepatitis (CVH) (9.3%; 95% CI: 8.1%–10.5%), and diabetes mellitus (DM) (6.8%; 95% CI: 5.7%–7.9%) were prevalent. Higher risk of death was found in patients with DM (adjusted OR = 2.304; 95% CI: 1.520–3.492; P<0.001), CVH (adjusted OR = 1.551; 95% CI: 1.053–2.285; P = 0.026) and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) (adjusted OR = 2.170; 95% CI: 1.215–3.872; P = 0.009) after adjusting for age, sex, delay from disease onset to admission and treatment regimens. When analyzing the comorbidities separately, we found that the high serum glucose could augment diseases severity. Compared to the group with max glucose < 7.0 mmol/L, patients with glucose between 7.0–11.1 mmol/L and glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L conferred higher death risk, with the adjusted OR to be 1.467 (95% CI: 1.081–1.989; P = 0.014) and 3.443 (95% CI: 2.427–4.884; P<0.001). Insulin therapy could effectively reduce the risk of severe outcome in DM patients with the adjusted OR 0.146 (95% CI: 0.058–0.365; P<0.001). For CVH patients, severe damage of liver and prolongation of blood coagulation time, as well as high prevalence of bleeding phenotype were observed. These data supported the provocative hypothesis that treating SFTS related complications can attain potentially beneficial effects on SFTS.

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