Assessing how land use change will affect water production ecosystem services is essential to developing sound water resource management and ecosystem conservation. The results of a coordination analysis of land-use intensity and water yield based on future land-use simulation projections are useful for future land-use planning. To effectively assess water production rates, the PLUS and InVEST models were used to dynamically assess the changes in water production occurring in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2030 under different scenarios of land-use change. The results show that the water-production rates in the study area from 2000 to 2020 were 517.26 × 106 m3, 582.28 × 106 m3, and 456 × 106 m3, showing an increasing and then decreasing trend, with the water production function decreasing from the foothills of the Tianshan Mountains to the north and south, with values of 509.10 × 106 m33, 510.90 × 106 m3, and 502.28 × 106 m3 being presented for the three scenarios in 2030. The rapid economic development scenario presents the lowest water yield values and the ecological conservation development scenario presents the highest water yield values. Changes in water production rates are closely related to changes in land use, which can be verified further by an analysis of the coordination between land- use intensity and water production. For this study area, the ecological conservation development scenario may be more in line with the future urban development pattern, and the results of the present study can provide some scientific references for land-use planning.

Assessing how land-use changes will affect water-producing ecosystem services is particularly important for water resource management and ecosystem conservation. In this study, the InVEST model and geographical detector were used to assess the water ecosystem service functions of the Ebinur Lake Basin and analyze their relationship with land-use changes. The results show that in the past 25 years, the water yield of the study area showed a trend of a strong yield at first and then a weaker one; there was a relatively large water yield in the west and southeast regions of the basin. The order of water yield for different land-use types is as follows: forest land > grassland > water area > unused land > crop land > construction land. After 2010, the output load of nitrogen and phosphorus increased; thus, the water purification ability weakened. The main land-use types in areas that demonstrate a large change rate in water purification capacity in the basin are cultivated land and construction land. Changes in the two water ecosystem services were associated with land-use changes. Geodetector analysis results further validated this conclusion. This study proposes a viable, replicable framework for land-use decisions in ecologically fragile watersheds. This study not only helps to gain insight into urban growth patterns in the study area but also helps to inform different land-use stakeholders.