BackgroundPrior to 1970, coal mining technology and prevention measures in China were poor. Mechanized coal mining equipment and advanced protection measures were continuously installed in the mines after 1970. All these improvements may have resulted in a change in the incidence of coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (CWP). Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of CWP today and trends for the incidence of CWP in the future.Methodology/Principal FindingsA total of 17,023 coal workers from the Kailuan Colliery Group were studied. A life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of CWP and predict the number of new CWP patients in the future. The probability of developing CWP was estimated by a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network for each coal worker without CWP. The results showed that the cumulative incidence rates of CWP for tunneling, mining, combining, and helping workers were 31.8%, 27.5%, 24.2%, and 2.6%, respectively, during the same observation period of 40 years. It was estimated that there would be 844 new CWP cases among 16,185 coal workers without CWP within their life expectancy. There would be 273.1, 273.1, 227.6, and 69.9 new CWP patients in the next <10, 10-, 20-, and 30- years respectively in the study cohort within their life expectancy. It was identified that coal workers whose risk probabilities were over 0.2 were at high risk for CWP, and whose risk probabilities were under 0.1 were at low risk.Conclusion/SignificanceThe present and future incidence trends of CWP remain high among coal workers. We suggest that coal workers at high risk of CWP undergo a physical examination for pneumoconiosis every year, and the coal workers at low risk of CWP be examined every 5 years.

We aimed to estimate the economic losses currently caused by coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (CWP) and, on the basis of these measurements, confirm the economic benefit of preventive measures. Our cohort study included 1,847 patients with CWP and 43,742 coal workers without CWP who were registered in the employment records of the Datong Coal Mine Group. We calculated the cumulative incidence rate of pneumoconiosis using the life-table method. We used the dose-response relationship between cumulative incidence density and cumulative dust exposure to predict the future trend in the incidence of CWP. We calculate the economic loss caused by CWP and economic effectiveness of CWP prevention by a step-wise model. The cumulative incidence rates of CWP in the tunneling, mining, combining, and helping cohorts were 58.7%, 28.1%, 21.7%, and 4.0%, respectively. The cumulative incidence rates increased gradually with increasing cumulative dust exposure (CDE). We predicted 4,300 new CWP cases, assuming the dust concentrations remained at the levels of 2011. If advanced dustproof equipment was adopted, 537 fewer people would be diagnosed with CWP. In all, losses of 1.207 billion Renminbi (RMB, official currency of China) would be prevented and 4,698.8 healthy life years would be gained. Investments in advanced dustproof equipment would be total 843 million RMB, according to our study; the ratio of investment to restored economic losses was 1:1.43. Controlling workplace dust concentrations is critical to reduce the onset of pneumoconiosis and to achieve economic benefits.

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