Using the numerical experiments undertaken by nine climate models within the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), the ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model for the last millennium (CESM-LME), and proxy data, we investigate the climate over China during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; from 1450 to 1850 CE) against the background of the last millennium (from 850 to 1850 CE). The surface air temperature averaged over China generally decreased over time during the last millennium, with several multi-decadal to centennial variations superimposed on the long-term cooling. Relative to the climatology of the last millennium, the annual surface temperature during the LIA decreased over the country, with an average cooling of −0.07°C for the median of the PMIP3 models. Different magnitudes of cooling occurred in all seasons except spring. The cooling over China during the LIA was largely attributed to changes in volcanic eruptions and land use, while the change in orbital parameters played a role on a seasonal scale. The precipitation over China during the LIA decreased for the annual mean and summer and autumn but slightly increased in winter and spring. Model–data comparisons indicate that the models reproduced the colder and drier climate of the LIA reasonably, although there are some differences in certain aspects.

The teleconnection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and eastern China summer precipitation (ECSP) for the modern period has been emphasized in the past few decades. We test its stability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) based on the composite results of the median of six models under the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase3 (PMIP3) framework. During the MCA, ECSP generally increases in positive AMO phases relative to negative phases, similar to the modern teleconnection, while during the LIA, the precipitation tends to reduce over eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River basin. Decomposing the precipitation change on the basis of a diagnostic moisture budget manifests that the different AMO-related precipitation changes stem from distinct effects of circulation-induced moisture convergence during the two periods. Compared with negative AMO phases, positive AMO phases during the MCA show an anomalous lower-level cyclone and upper-level anticyclone over eastern China that facilitate the upward motion anomaly and precipitation excess. During the LIA, a barotropic anticyclone centers in Northeast China and weakens the high-level westerlies over eastern China; this favors descending and upper-level divergence anomalies and leads to precipitation decreases. The distinct convergence changes are determined by differing propagation paths of the AMO-induced teleconnection wave train during the two periods.

The eastern China summer precipitation is related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on interdecadal time scales in modern times, but it remains unclear whether such a relationship holds prior to the instrumental period. We examine this relationship during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). According to a composite analysis using simulations of the HadCM3 model, which is selected from nine available climate models, the PDO–eastern China summer precipitation relationship varies with climatic background. The modern relationship features deficient precipitation over North and South China and excessive precipitation in the Yangtze–Huai River Valley in positive PDO phases compared with negative phases. In contrast, there is more precipitation over South and North China but less in the Yangtze–Huai River Valley during the MCA and widespread below-normal summer precipitation over eastern China during the LIA. Such different PDO-related precipitation patterns between the MCA and LIA are closely linked to distinct changes in local atmospheric circulation. Compared with negative PDO phases, positive phases during the MCA show an anomalous Pacific–Japan/East Asia–Pacific pattern over East Asia and strengthened high-level westerlies centering on 120°E and 25–30°N, which lead to the triple pattern in the precipitation anomaly. During the LIA, a cyclonic anomaly occurs over the South China Sea–Philippine Sea in the lower and middle troposphere, and two upper-level low trough anomalies occur over East Asia, causing the anomalous precipitation deficit. The different PDO-related local circulations are found to be relevant to the thermodynamic effect of low-latitude sea surface temperature and summer precipitation over India, as well as the propagation of upstream wave trains.